College Football Week 10 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

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Quarterback Hank Bachmeier #19 of the Boise State Broncos . Loren Orr/Getty Images/AFP

Here we are, the month of college football where upsets happen unexpectedly. This is where nerves come into play like a basketball player needing two free throws to ice a game. Let’s go check the NCAAF odds! November is where the cream rises to the top.

The best teams come through and win their divisions and advance to the conference title games while others fall to the wayside. Those that typically come up short are either beaten by a better team or upset and that is what we are on the lookout for in this spot.

Our preference is the outright upset, but we always are looking for underdogs who can throw a real scare into a highly rated team as a big point spread favorite who could take their game for granted off a big win or looking ahead. Here is what we have for you this week.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, November 6, 2021 -3:30 PM EDT at Notre Dame Stadium

If you have not heard the story of Notre Dame playing Navy annually, it goes back to World War ll when the Navy sent students to Notre Dame because the school was about to close with so many of its all-male population fighting in the war. Notre Dame is forever grateful and Fighting Irish players are prohibited from trash talking in this encounter.

Coach Brian Kelly’s team is 7-1 (5-3 ATS) and back in the Top 10 and will be favored in the rest of their games with a legit chance to reach a Super 6 Bowl game. After being outscored 72-10 in their first two games of the season, both at home, the Navy has covered five of six and engineered two outright upsets, and took No. 2 Cincinnati to the wire.

head coach Brian Kelly of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

Though the Midshipmen have seldom knocked off Notre Dame since 1992 (4-23 SU), they have been more than competitive when using the betting odds at 18-9 ATS. Because the Irish defense is not great at penetrating, the Middies can hold the ball and run the clock and keep the final score to around 14 points and maybe less than that.

NCAAF Pick: Navy +20.5 (-105) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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N.C. State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, November 6, 2021 - 4:00 PM EDT at Doak Campbell Stadium

This is a must-win for N.C. State, with a huge matchup at Wake Forest next week that will go a long way in deciding the ACC Atlantic Division champion.

If you have Florida State last week at +9.5 at Clemson, you have our condolences, that was brutal. However, the Seminoles are playing much better football in their past four games in particular and coach Mike Norvell seems to finally have his players believing what the coaches are preaching.

If you discount the Noles game versus UMass, in their past three contests, they are +3 in points, showing their competitiveness. The Wolf Pack are +39 in their last three outings, but that number is somewhat fraudulent since they only have outgained those foes by 18 total yards. Both clubs are +3 in turnover margin in this stretch.

With Florida State at home and playing with purpose and N.C. State a poor late-season team at 11-21 ATS in November, the Seminoles can pull this off.

NCAAF Pick: Florida State +2.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 6, 2021 - 7:00 PM EDT at Bulldog Stadium

With victories over Nevada and San Diego State in the last two weeks, Fresno State controls its destiny to reach the MWC title tilt. The Bulldogs’ loss at Hawai’i, where they committed six turnovers, placed them in a spot where they have no margin for error.

Boise State is only .500 this season and is far cry from the Chris Pederson days when they were a Top 10 program and recruited NFL-caliber players from California. That does mean the Broncos are a pushover, having played a far tougher schedule than the Bulldogs and outscored opponents by 7.5 PPG.

Jake Haener #9 of the Fresno State Bulldogs. Darryl Oumi/Getty Images/AFP

Fresno State has a terrific passing offense led by QB Jake Haener, which is 7th in FBS. Boise State deploys a malleable defense that concedes 404 YPG, yet only allows 21.8 PPG and is 10th in the country in yards per point. With the Broncos 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less, they make the home teamwork for 60 minutes.

NCAAF Pick: Boise State +5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.