College Football Week 10 Last Chance Value Picks

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Thayer Thomas #5 of the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Mark Brown/Getty Images/AFP.

Each week we take one last look at the college football odds to see where the lines have shifted from the openers to the near closers. Let’s review the best value on the board this Saturday and keep cashing our college football picks.

Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, November 06, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

The Rebels opened as 8-point home chalk but that number has drifted to as high as 9 ½ at some of the best online sportsbooks. Liberty checks into this game with a 7-2 record and has covered on six of nine occasions, including their last game in which they trounced U Mass, 62-17, covering the 35 ½ point impost.

Ole Miss, the No. 15 team in the nation, will be greeting their old head coach, Hugh Freeze, across the sidelines. Freeze resigned Ole Miss under the cloud of a personal scandal so there will be that extra bit of drama added to this one. But the main event is the toe-toe matchup of two of the best gunslingers in the country, Liberty’s Malik Willis and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral.

Head coach Hugh Freeze of the Liberty Flames. Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images/AFP.

The difference between these two clubs is scant which leads me to believe that part of the reason the Rebels are such significant favorites is because of the conference in which they play. The SEC teams always get more love from the betting public but in this one, we see a golden opportunity to grab the points and watch the Flames burn the house down.

NCAAF Pick: Liberty +9 ½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapins

Saturday, November 06, 2021 - 03:30 PM EDT at Maryland Stadium

The college football odds initially revealed Penn State as high as 12-point road chalk but that number has fallen to as low as 10 at the time of this writing. As square as it is to bet a team laying double digits on the road against a conference rival, that’s exactly what we intend to do here. The number is good, although 9 ½ would be so much better, and this is how we make money over the long haul, by exploiting bad numbers.

There is also a revenge factor for Penn State as we recall the Terps puttin’ the boots to the Lions last year, 35-19, in a game in which the Nittany Lions were a whopping 27 ½ point home favorite. Teams and coaches don’t forget games like that and there will be plenty of incentive for Penn State to make it right on Saturday.

Taulia Tagovailoa #3 of the Maryland Terrapins avoids the tackle attempt of Ellis Brooks #13 of the Penn State Nittany Lions. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

Let’s also look at a recent common opponent, Ohio State, a team that beat Penn State last week by the score of 33-24 but annihilated Maryland, 66-17, less than a month ago. Lay the lumber with the road favorite here and cash a ticket.

NCAAF Pick: Penn State -10 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, November 06, 2021 - 04:00 PM EDT at Doak S. Campbell Stadium

One of the smallest lines moves in pro or college football is often the mightiest. I speak of moving off of, onto, or through the all-important number three. Here we have such a case as NC State has been bet down from -3 to – 2 ½ and we will happily take advantage of that magical hook and toss a wager on the Wolfpack.

Let’s take a look at a few trends that are working in favor of NC State as they head into hostile territory this Saturday.

  • Wolfpack is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Wolfpack is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
  • Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
  • Seminoles are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

NCAAF Pick: NC State -2 ½ (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.