College Football Last Chance Value Picks Week 9: A Blowout and Two Live Underdogs

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Caleb Chandler #55 and Malik Cunningham #3 of the Louisville Cardinals celebrate a touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles. Michael Hickey/Getty Images/AFP.

It is Halloween weekend and that alone is spooky enough. Now you add in college football betting and you already know every selection you make will be a trick or treat.

For this week’s value picks, we are tooling around the ACC, American, and Big 12 conferences and we think we have the potential to spook the sportsbooks against the betting odds.

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 29, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Cardinal Stadium

Wake Forest is unlikely to reach the ACC title tilt having lost to Clemson 51-45 in double overtime. Instead, the Demons Deacons would enjoy nothing better than to finish 11-1 and force the hand of the bowl committee to let them play in a Super 6 Bowl.

Wake Forest does have a tough slate ahead and this week in Louisville is one of those skirmishes. The Cardinals have just a 4-3 record, but they are averaging over 30 points a game since tallying only 7 in the season opener versus Syracuse and their defense has generated a whopping 15 turnovers in their past 5 outings.

Louisville Can Cover if They Run the Ball and Force Miscues

The best sportsbooks have Louisville at +3.5-point home underdogs and they have given Wake a tussle recently at 3-0 ATS with 2 victories, all as an underdog.

Senior quarterback Malik Cunningham has to use his legs, arm, and his head to navigate the Deacons' defense, and if he can generate big plays, that could put the visitors on their heels.

Wake Forest’s mesh offense is so challenging to stop with the herky-jerky run action. What the ’Ville has to do is be stout on red zone defense to force field goals and create mistakes and cash those in.

Louisville knows they can play with the visitor, they just have to close the deal.

NCAAF Pick: Louisville +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Temple Owls vs. Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, October 29, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

This AAC conflict involves a pair of 2-5 clubs, yet as the college football odds point out, the difference between the 2 teams is more than just one having the home-field advantage.

Temple has the 5th-worst scoring offense in college football at desultory 14.9 points a game. If they had more ability they could certainly do better because the opponents they have faced are allowing 26.6 PPG.

After an 0-2 SU and ATS, the Navy righted the ship (intentional play on words) and covered the point spread 4 times, winning twice before a much speedier Houston club handled the Midshipmen 38-20 as 3-point road favorites last Saturday.

The Navy’s resurgence commenced by finding the running game in their option offense, which is up to 4th nationally. And they sprinkle in the past as a surprise option.

Navy’s Ability To Control the Line of Scrimmage Will Be the Difference

The Owls permit 180 yards a game rushing and there is little reason to think the Middies won’t match their average of almost 250 yards on the ground or surpass it.

Temple only averages 80 yards on the ground and the Midshipmen are 13th in stopping the run. If the Owls could pass they possibly could cover the number, however, they are 117th in yards per pass attempt. Temple tumbles to 0-9 ATS as a road underdog.

NCAAF Pick: Navy -13.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, October 29, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Stadium

The winner of this important Big 12 battle will enter November positioned to reach the conference title game most likely versus TCU. Both clubs have lost to the Horned Frogs which sets up a near-elimination confrontation in the Little Apple.

Oklahoma State had TCU down 14 points entering the 4th quarter and was caught before falling in 2 OTs. Most figured the Cowboys had fallen out of the saddle and couldn’t climb back on and all they did was upset Texas in Stillwater last week to set up this opportunity.

Kansas State had an 18-point margin over the Horned Frogs in the second quarter and looked unstoppable. Instead, the Wildcats were shut down on offense and too much Frogs speed saw them close the contest on a 28-0 finish to win and cover. K-State will have to do what Okie State did and put that loss behind them.

Strong Situations Clash: Who Covers?

Kansas State has had its way with Oklahoma State in Manhattan at 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS. The ‘Cats are a 1.5-point favorite but will QB Adrian Martinez play, as he is nursing a knee injury that limited him last weekend to playing just in the first quarter? He’s listed as questionable and if he does play he figures to have issues running and not be 100%.

Will Howard is a capable backup, yet Spencer Sanders knows how to make big plays in Mike Gundy’s offense. This crew of Cowboys is 14-1 ATS when catching points and wins on the road.

NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.