College Football Last Chance Value Picks Week 8: Watch Out for This Trio of Underdogs

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Offensive lineman Garrett Curran #69 congratulates running back Ashton Jeanty #2 of the Boise State Broncos after a touchdown against the San Diego State Aztecs. Loren Orr/Getty Images/AFP.

It is going to be tough to beat last week’s array of games that were not only supposed to be terrific matchups, they delivered as well.

We would be shocked if college football did not return to what we normally expect, but that doesn’t mean Saturday will be devoid of upsets. Because in all likelihood there will be an ample amount of underdogs that will cover the NCAAF odds and we present you a trio that has a value this week.

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Toledo Rockets vs. Buffalo Bulls

Saturday, October 22, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at UB Stadium

This could very well be the first of 2 confrontations between these clubs in 2002. These are the last 2 remaining unbeaten in the MAC and they are in different divisions.

Toledo is 5-2 (4-3 ATS) and their only 2 losses came on the road to Ohio State and San Diego State. In 3 MAC matchups, they are 3-0 SU and ATS and winning by 20.6 points a game.

After a shaky 0-3 start, Buffalo has found their groove and rattled off 4 straight wins and covers. The Bulls' offense has clicked since scoring 10 points against Maryland to start the season and is running at 33.8 PPG. That is still less than the Rockets at 38.4 PPG.

Buffalo’s Run Defense Has to Step Up

Toledo does not have the prolific pass offense of past seasons and relies more on the run at 193 yards a game and 4.7 yards a carry. Buffalo is allowing 4.9 YPC and if that occurs, the Bulls will go down and fail to beat the college football odds of +7.

Don’t expect Buffalo to be intimidated by Toledo because they know they can play with them, especially at home. Then we have this nugget: Road favorites like the Rockets after one or more SU wins, against an opponent after 3 or more consecutive SU victories, are only 13-39 ATS since 2018.

NCAAF Pick: Buffalo +7 (-104) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks

Saturday, October 22, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium

UCLA and Oregon will be fresh for this key clash coming off of bye weeks to start the second half of their seasons.

The Bruins enter 6-0 (4-2 ATS) and are off impressive underdog home wins over Washington and Utah.

Since the Ducks' early-season thrashing by Georgia, they have won five in a row and are 4-2 ATS overall. The top-rated sportsbooks have labeled Oregon as a six-point favorite and they are 8-4 and 5-6-1 ATS as hosts in Eugene.

The Winner Has the Best Quarterback and Turnovers

On the season, both offenses have been clean with only 5 turnovers in a half dozen starts. UCLA has generated more turnovers with 12 compared to 8 for Oregon and if that continues, this could be the difference in a one-score outcome.

The other element in the Pac-12 beauty is the quarterback position. This features 2 veterans who came through the wars to reach this point with Bo Nix for the Ducks and Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the Bruins. One concern for Oregon is Nix’s failures in big games. Maybe it won’t happen before the home crowd, yet it is a storyline.

We are taking points with UCLA, who is 7-0 ATS after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.

NCAAF Pick: UCLA +6 (-110) at Bookmaker

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Boise State Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons

Saturday, October 22, 2022 - 07:00 PM EDT at Falcon Stadium

Despite Air Force already having 2 MWC losses (2-2) and Boise State being spotless in the Mountain Division at 3-0, the Falcons are a 3-point home favorite according to the betting odds.

Air Force (5-2, 4-3 ATS) has two ugly road losses at Wyoming and Utah State in which they were double-digit favorites. The Flyboys are much better at home where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS) and their top-rated rushing offense truly shines at 431 YPG.

Boise State stumbled out the gate at 2-2 and they suffered bad-looking losses at Oregon State (34-17 and UTEP (27-10). Since officially benching Hank Bachmeier (who is transferring) and going with Taylen Green at quarterback, something has clicked and the Broncos’ run-first offense and defense have improved by spending less time on the field.

Revenge-Mind Broncos Ready for the Challenge

After knocking off Air Force 4 consecutive times, Boise State fell 24-17 on the blue turf last year as three-point faves.

Boise State coaches know the Falcons will get their rushing yards, with the key keeping them out of the end zone. Because the Air Force passing game is down significantly from prior years (QB Haaziq Daniels is below 50% completion percentage) and they’ve committed at least 2 turnovers in 4 of 7 contests, with the Broncos having to be physical at the point of attack.

If this happens and Green works the Boise State offense properly, the Broncos move to 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less and win outright.

NCAAF Pick: Boise State +3 (-115) at Bookmaker

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.