College Football Last Chance Value Picks Week 7 Feature Clemson, Navy, and Tennessee

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Beaux Collins of the Clemson Tigers reacts with Phil Mafah after scoring a touchdown against the Boston College Eagles. Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images/AFP.

Everything points to this being a fantastic week of college football, with six Top 25 confrontations. Within the mix are three matchups featuring undefeated clubs with a lot riding on all the outcomes.

While we are genuinely excited about these and many other contests, our mission when looking over the college football odds is to find the best value on three separate battles.

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Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs

Friday, October 14, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Both these American Conference clubs enter this skirmish at 2-3 on the year, yet, they are headed in different directions. After a 2-0 start, SMU has dumped three in a row, albeit, against good competition like at Maryland, TCU, and at UCF.

Navy came out of the gate 0-2, which included an ugly loss at home to Delaware by a 14-7 score. Since, coach Ken Niumatalolo’s crew has gotten their sea legs, winning two of three and posting a 3-0 ATS mark.

Navy Can Control Game and Tempo

The Midshipmen are getting back to playing their game which is controlling the clock and piling up first down after first down and mentally and physically wearing out the competition. Navy has moved up to 12th nationally in running the ball, while SMU is 105th stopping the rush.

This can lead to long drives for Navy and seeing the Mustangs are a pass-first offense, the Middies can shorten the number of possessions SMU will have.

As long as the Midshipmen don’t allow many quick scores they can stay in this game with their offense and cover the +12.5. Keep this in mind also, Navy is 7-0 ATS in road games off an upset win as a home underdog.

NCAAF Pick: Navy +12.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Navy +12.5 (-108)
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Clemson Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Doak Campbell Stadium

If you have seen Florida State this season, you know they are drastically improved than the last several years with better athletes and football players. Coming off of two tough losses to Wake Forest and N.C. State, the chances of winning the ACC Atlantic are slim, but the Seminoles could make a statement with the upset.

Clemson might not be back to the level they were when they won 2 national titles in 3 years but they are dramatically better than last year’s club. The Tigers’ offense is not electric, ranked 53rd, but what they are is efficient, ranked 5th in yards per point, which explains their scoring 39.3 PPG.

Clemson’s Big Game Experience Matters

Defensively, Clemson ranks 28th and FSU 29th in yards allowed. Though the numbers are this close, there is a significant difference.

The Noles allow 156 YPG on the ground, but the three best running teams they have faced (Louisville, Wake Forest, and N.C. State), have surrendered 202 YPG. Clemson is No. 2 against the run and while Florida State averages over 200 YPG rushing, they haven’t faced a defensive line that attacks and who has linebackers that fill holes as the Tigers do.

For three quarters, this was a very good football game. Clemson’s big game experience will help and they are 32-13 ATS in road games after a win by 28 or more points.

Because these Tigers don’t beat themselves with only four turnovers, Florida State is 3-12 ATS against teams who commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers a game and they come away with the win and cover.

NCAAF Pick: Clemson -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Clemson -3.5 (-108)
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Neyland Stadium

This is the game of the day and for every Tennessee fan, they are hoping to end a very long drought. The Vols have lost 15 consecutive times to Alabama (4-11 ATS). Knoxville, Tennessee is just 2-12 in their latest meetings with the Crimson Tide beating the betting odds only five times.

It has been some time since the Volunteers have even been in a game, losing by 32.5 points a game the past six years, with an average point spread just over -26 points.

However, the current spread finds Alabama -7, which is the lowest since 2008 (-6), which was Nick Saban’s second year in Tuscaloosa.

Trust Tennessee’s Defense

The odds seem to indicate the best sportsbooks believe Alabama QB Bryce Young will play and the biggest weakness for Tennessee is their pass defense, listed 128th at 307 YPG. Nonetheless, The Vols are permitting just 17.8 PPG because they are stout against the run (11th) and in the Top 10 for sacks and quarterback pressures.

Tennessee’s lightning-fast-paced offense should generate problems for the Tide and as long as they score touchdowns and don’t kick field goals, Josh Heupel’s squad can hang in. With Alabama just 2-4 ATS of late in true away outings, Rocky Top has a shot to cover for college football picks and who knows what else.

NCAAF Pick: Tennessee +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.