NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks Week 3 Feature Memphis and Vanderbilt

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AJ Swann #13 of the Vanderbilt Commodores gets ready to pass the ball in the third quarter against the Wake Forest Deacons. Carly Mackler/Getty Images/AFP.

We move ahead to Week 3 of the college football season looking for more wagering opportunities.

After surveying the landscape coast to coast, a trio of college football picks stand out this Saturday.

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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Syracuse Orange

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at JMA Wireless Dome

Syracuse is off to a 2-0 start, their best in four years having made changes in the offense and defense. The offensive alterations have revolved around a more down-the-field passing game with quarterback Garrett Schrader.

The Orange defense is also more aggressive and they have held two opponents 91 yards below their season average and 10.5 PPG while forcing five turnovers and committing none.

After losing a winnable game versus Penn State, the Boilermakers boiled Indiana State 52-0 and hit the road for the first time.

QB Aidan O'Connell is also off to a fast start hitting slants or out routes designed for more chunk plays. The Boilers' run defense is only permitting 2.2 yards a carry and has been stout.

Purdue vs. Syracuse: Our Betting Pick

I’m making a rare play on the total of 58.5, liking what I see from both defenses and their team history.

Purdue is 16-6 Under in away games with Coach Brohm, while the 'Cuse is 19-6 Under after a cover as a double-digit favorite and 14-2 Under after two straight wins by 17 or more points.

NCAAF Pick: Purdue/Syracuse Under 58.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Purdue/Syracuse Under 58.5 (-108)
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Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Huskie Stadium

Though Northern Illinois is the defending MAC champion and is among the favorites to reclaim its title, there is a vast difference between the SEC and the Mid-American Conference.

At one time the MAC was better than the Sun Belt but that is not the case anymore. The SBC has better and faster athletes today and they are still a level or two below the SEC.

With rare exceptions, Vanderbilt is annually one the weakest clubs in the SEC, yet they are not on par with MAC.

With the top-rated sportsbooks making Northern Illinois a 2.5-point home favorite for NCAAF odds, they are saying these programs are essentially even. We disagree.

Vanderbilt vs. Northern Illinois: Our Betting Pick

Though the Huskies have generally enjoyed a nice home-field edge, they have done much better in the role of the underdog than a home favorite. 

The Commodores do have a speed edge and after failing to cover two straight, the ‘Dores are 25-11 ATS away after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Vandy outright.

NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Vanderbilt +2.5 (-108)
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Memphis Tigers

Saturday, September 17, 2022 - 07:00 PM EDT at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium

For a long period, Arkansas State annually was one the best clubs in the Sun Belt. Like everything in life, change is inevitable and the Red Wolves are off two losing seasons, including 2-10 SU last year.

Arky State has played Grambling and Ohio State thus far, and we start to find where they are beginning this week after facing two completely opposite clubs. 

After being one of the worst defense squads in the country a year ago, their pass defense was lit up for 370 yards by the Buckeyes, which is not a shocker.

Nevertheless, Memphis is a pass-first team who loves to take deep shots down the field and can exploit the Red Wolves. 

After taking a seven-year break, these two have met the last two years with Memphis 2-0 (0-2 ATS), playing in what they are calling the Paint Bucket Bowl.

Arkansas State vs. Memphis: Our Betting Pick

Back home, look for the Tigers as de NCAAF pick to continually challenge the Arkansas State pass defense in what should be a high-scoring affair, burying the visitor by 20 against the college football odds with a prolific pass attack.

NCAAF Pick: Memphis -14 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Memphis -14 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.