College Football Last Chance Value Picks Week 12 Featuring Arizona, Temple and North Carolina

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Drake Maye #10 of the North Carolina Tar Heels looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP.

This week in college football, there are divisions to win or try to make your way into a conference championship game. For the chosen few, it means keeping winning and hoping you are among the four that make the playoffs. While many others are just trying to become bowl eligible and earn the reward of playing somewhere you have never visited.

As football bettors, we have to take all of those elements into consideration while at the same time attempting to understand what those elements mean against the point spread. That is the weekly mission during football and finding the best value for college football picks.

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Washington State Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 02:00 PM EST at Arizona Stadium

On the West Coast, this is their version of an early start at noon in Pullman, WA. It will be 01:00 in Tucson since the time change and Arizona is out for another upset as they try to reach bowl eligibility having a 4-6 mark.

The Wildcats stunned UCLA on the road 34-28 as 20-point pooches last Saturday night, ending a four-game losing streak and lifting them to 6-4 ATS. Arizona has one of the most prolific passing games in the country, ranked 6th at 326 yards per contest. The quarterback driving the bus is Jayden de Laura, who played two seasons at Washington State, so you know he will be pumped.

The Cougars are already going bowling and would like to upgrade the contest they will play in by finishing 8-4. Washington State’s losses have come against the upper crust of the Pac-12, falling to University of Southern California, UCLA, Utah, and Oregon State.

The Washington State offense is run of the mill and why they have been successful is because the defense has held opponents 9 PPG below their average.

‘Zona Passing Game Always Give Them a Chance

Arizona’s defense is easily the worst in the conference and is 127th nationally in yards allowed, permitting 37.2 PPG. That places the burden on the offense to keep pace.

It would be very easy to fade the Wildcats, yet, Wazzou is only favored by four points and they could be looking ahead to facing in-state rival Washington in a far more important battle next week.

With the Cougars only 2-12 ATS off two consecutive Pac-12 wins by 10 points or more, the ‘Cats hang in and might secure another upset.

NCAAF Pick: Arizona +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Arizona +4 (-108)
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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Temple Owls

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 04:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

Cincinnati needs a victory to set up a contest with Tulane and the victor is expected to face Central Florida in two weeks for the American Conference championship.

But here is the thing, the Bearcats just have to win and beating Temple badly is not the goal to cover the NCAAF odds of -17.

Temple’s having another lousy season at 3-7. Despite the losses, the Owls are more than competitive, especially when we are talking about the spread where they have a 7-3 ATS record. Though the home games are mostly devoid of fans playing at the Eagles stadium, Temple is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS.

Temple Is Not Giving Up

Cincy scores 32.6 PPG and allows 21.4 PPG, which is precisely what the Owls score. Temple permits 27.9 PPG, so even if the Bearcats reach their average, as long as the Owls have an average scoring day that aligns with what Cincinnati concedes.

There are a couple of other factors that work against Luke Fickell’s team, as he is 3-11 ATS in road games off two straight wins against conference rivals and 5-14 ATS away in the second half of the season.

NCAAF Pick: Temple +17 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Temple +17 (-108)
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 05:30 PM EST at Kenan Memorial Stadium

By beating Wake Forest last week, North Carolina has won the Coastal Division and sports a 6-0 ACC record. There might not be a team from a power conference attracting less buzz for having a 9-1 record at this juncture of the season in the past decade at least.

Part of that is North Carolina’s defense is giving up 31.3 PPG and ranks 124th in total defense, which is the worst in the ACC, so it's hard to take them seriously.

Rest assured, wily veteran coach Mack Brown could give a hoot about where his team is in the stats. They have one loss on the third Saturday in November, UNC will face Clemson for the ACC crown and presently has a shot at a Super Six bowl bid.

Tar Heels Don’t Have to Change a Thing

Georgia Tech is at Chapel Hill this Saturday and they have a 4-6 record. The Yellow Jackets sparked after changing head coaches with two wins, but are 1-3 since.

We are not sure how the Jackets will contain North Carolina freshman QB Drake Maye who has 34 touchdown passes, running the No. 10 scoring offense which averages 40.1 PPG.

We are not going to disagree that giving -21 points with an unimpressive defense comes with risk. Nonetheless, if you have watched the Tar Heels, you know they can score 21 points in any given quarter. With Georgia Tech’s below-average offense, coach Brown’s crew can win 49-21 and cover the number at the best sportsbooks.

NCAAF Pick: North Carolina -21 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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North Carolina -21 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.