College Football Last Chance Value Picks Week 10 Featuring the AAC, Big 12 and SEC

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Braylon Braxton #1 of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane hands the ball off to Steven Anderson #24 of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane against the Mississippi Rebels. Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP.

This is the month that separates the boys from the men in college football. The top teams win and frequently cover point spreads and the pretenders fall by the wayside and leave a trail of football bettors throwing betting tickets into the trash.

Those that do well get the best bowl assignments and some teams come out of nowhere to become bowl eligible, while others tumble from good bowl games to ones only bettors care to follow.

That’s why it is imperative to find the best betting odds at the best sportsbooks for the greatest value, understanding how November is different.

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Tulane Green Wave vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Skelly Field at H. A. Chapman Stadium

Coming off a 2-10 campaign, despite having 17 returning starters, Tulane was picked to finish in the middle of the American Conference. There was a belief that after doing a very good job at Tulane for 6 seasons, by their standards, coach Willie Fritz had maxed out and a decline was inevitable.

That might be true for Fritz but it won’t be in 2022, as he has his team at the top of the AAC standings (4-0) and they are 7-1 (matching ATS record) which includes an upset at No. 13 Kansas State.

Tulsa's had a rough go since a 2-1 start, with 1 victory in their past 5 outings and posting a 1-3-1 ATS mark. The Golden Hurricane by the numbers still has a good offense which averages 32.4 points a game, but the defense allows 34 PPG. Tulse has also beaten itself with 12 turnovers in the stretch.

Tulsa Knows How to Beat Tulane

Tulane is a 7.5-point road favorite according to the NCAAF odds and is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record. However, Tulsa is 31-17 ATS as an underdog and is 9-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses against the spread.

The Golden Hurricane has a super record versus the Green Wave at 13-4 SU and ATS and included in those numbers is a 7-1 SU and ATS mark at home. With the pressure on Tulane to succeed and us getting the half-point hook, that’s where the value is.

NCAAF Pick: Tulsa +7.5 (-111) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Tulsa +7.5 (-111)
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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, November 5, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

After coming from behind to beat Texas, the logical thinking was Oklahoma State could march into Manhattan, Kansas, and upset Kansas State. Turns out, the Cowboys have knocked off their horses early and they had no energy to get back in the saddle and were whipped by the Wildcats 48-0, for coach Mike Gundy’s worst loss ever.

Having to eat a large slice of humble pie, Oklahoma State looks to regroup and finish the season 10-2 and hope to make the Big 12 title game.

After a scintillating 5-0 start, the rigors of the Big 12 have caught up to Kansas with 3 consecutive setbacks, though a respectable 1-1-1 ATS. Coach Lance Leipold has done a brilliant job in Lawrence and his offense averages 38 PPG. With Kansas just a 2-point home underdog, they will attract a lot of betting attention.

The Value Is on Okie State Along With the Numbers

The Jayhawks' down to +2 (from +3.5) is also a potential bonus for Coach Gundy’s crew. Bettors will look at how badly the Cowboys were routed and assume they are beatable

Maybe they are, but Oklahoma State is 9-2 and 8-2-1 ATS at Lawrence and 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards per attempt.

Add in road teams like Okie State averaging 425 or more total yards a game, after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards a play in their previous game, are 26-6 ATS and the visitor looks the right side.

NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State -2 (-110) at Bookmaker

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Oklahoma State -2 (-110)
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Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 5, 2022 - 07:30 PM EDT at Davis Wade Stadium

To the surprise of nobody, Bryan Harsin was fired Monday and Auburn now owes former coaches over 42 million in buyout money. That won’t stop the football program from overpaying someone new for next season.

It used to be that returning players would think about if they wanted to stay and have to sit out a year to transfer. Not anymore and you can bet several Auburn players are already finding out their options where they can go now and their interest in being an Auburn player is only making good on the NIL money they might have received. My best guess is half the team has mentally checked out.

Mississippi State is coming off a bye week and it was needed after scoring a mere 23 total points at Kentucky and Alabama. Mike Leach’s Bulldogs are a much different squad in Starkville, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS and scoring 44 PPG.

Desire and Home Cooking Is the Difference

The Auburn defense has played as they had already given up, allowing over 500 yards a game and 43.6 PPG in their past 3 SEC encounters. It is difficult to imagine them coming ready to play on the road against an opponent that is hungry to get back to their winning ways.

With Leach coached teams 17-5 ATS at home after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games, winning by 16.2 PPG, the cowbells will be ringing in Starkville.

NCAAF Pick: Mississippi State -12 (-110) at Bookmaker

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.