NCAAF Pick: Kenny McIntosh Over 3.5 Receptions (+135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The mismatch between the Georgia Bulldogs’ offense and TCU Horned Frogs’ defense is giving us some amazing props for our NCAAF picks.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Monday, January 09, 2023 – 07:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
It hardly seems fair. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are massive 12.5-point favorites on the NCAAF odds board at BetOnline for Monday’s National Championship game versus the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs – making Georgia the biggest title favorites in the short history of the College Football Playoff.
That’s not where you’ll find the best value for your college football picks. Nope, that’ll be in the NCAAF player props section as usual; Monday is shaping up to be a field day for Bulldogs offense, and all three of our top props are focussed directly on Georgia’s skill players. Smoke ‘em if you got ‘em.
Didn’t You Bet the Under on McIntosh Last Time?
Good memory. Yes, we had Georgia RB Kenny McIntosh going Under 59.5 rushing yards in their Peach Bowl battle with the Ohio State Buckeyes, and McIntosh ended up with 70 yards on five carries – thanks to that 52-yard second-quarter gallop where McIntosh tripped over the OSU 15-yard line.
We’ll call that a bad beat. Pretty much all of our Under-related bets for the CFP semifinals got smoked in an unusual display of bad defense, including Georgia’s defense, which has since fallen from No. 1 to No. 2 on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders.
This is a different game, though, and while we’re still recommending Under 63.5 for your National Championship picks (up from 62.5 since we last checked in), that’s because we think Georgia has the stopping power to snuff out TCU.
On the other side of the ball: carnage. The Horned Frogs come into this contest ranked No. 27 in defensive F+, having barely survived the Michigan Wolverines 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan had 528 yards of total offense in that semifinal. Yowza.
As it happens, the models we’re studying here at the ranch like McIntosh to blow past his total of 3.5 receptions on the overseas NCAAF odds – this prop should be available on our side of the pond before too long. McIntosh had five catches against Ohio State’s No. 15-ranked defense. He’s in good shape to grab at least four more versus TCU.
NCAAF Prop Pick: Kenny McIntosh Over 3.5 Receptions (+135) at BetOnline
Who Is Adonai Mitchell?
We haven’t seen much of Mitchell this year, have we? He was the No. 3 wideout on Georgia’s championship team with 27 receptions, but missed most of his sophomore campaign after hurting his ankle in Week 2.
Mitchell made it back in time for the Peach Bowl, and caught two passes during Georgia’s opening drive before falling silent for the rest of the game – until the final minute, that is, when Mitchell caught the game-winning touchdown pass from QB Stetson Bennett.
Fittingly enough, Mitchell also caught the go-ahead TD in last year’s National Championship win over Alabama. We only need him to repeat what he did against Ohio State and catch three passes this Monday, and once again, Mitchell should encounter less resistance from TCU’s defense than he did versus the Buckeyes.
NCAAF Prop Pick: Adonai Mitchell Over 2.5 Receptions (-271) at BetOnline
Are There Enough Touches to Go Around for Edwards?
We hope so. This was our main concern when we took the Under for McIntosh and his rushing yards against Ohio State; the Bulldogs have at least four tailbacks to hand off to, and Bennett will run the ball himself every once in a while.
The betting value should still be with Edwards and the Over. He’s the nominal No. 2 back behind McIntosh, but at the Peach Bowl, Edwards led Georgia with eight rushes, gaining 58 yards in the process. It was the 10th time in his last 11 games that Edwards ran for at least 46 yards.
He should be busy again this Monday. Looking a bit more closely at their defensive front, the Horned Frogs rank No. 51 overall in Opportunity Rate at Football Outsiders, meaning they’re not very good at stopping runners from gaining at least four yards per carry.
TCU also ranks No. 48 in Power Success and No. 44 in Stuff Rate, so they’re not very good in short-yardage situations, either. Edwards is something of a wizard when it comes to making defenders miss; the extra distance he squeezes out of every carry should help him collect those 46 yards one more time.
Bet accordingly at Georgia betting sites, and may the prolate spheroid be with you Monday night and beyond.
NCAAF Pick: Daijun Edwards Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
