CFP National Championship Game Best Bets: Last Chance Value Plays for Betting Georgia vs. Alabama

profile image of Swinging.Johnson
Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide looks to pass. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP.

The Crimson Tide will take on SEC rival, Georgia, in a winner-take-all rematch for the college football national championship. Let’s analyze this title tilt and find the best value in our college football picks on Monday night!

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Monday, January 10, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

These teams met only five weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and it was the first time in six years that Alabama entered the game as an underdog. It broke a streak of 92 consecutive games and, ironically, the last time the Tide was an underdog was when they met the Bulldogs in a 2015 regular-season game and came away 38-10 winners.

Much like that game, Alabama had no problem disabusing the top-rated sportsbooks that they had tagged the wrong team as the favorite and handed Georgia their only defeat of the year in a 41-24 decision. The Crimson Tide was installed as a six-point underdog in that matchup and we can see that they are 2 ½ point neutral site dogs in Monday night’s rematch.

But this time the Tide will be without one of their top offensive threats, John Metchie III, as he sustained a torn ACL in the SEC title game against Georgia. Alabama was able to get past Cincinnati in the CFP semifinals as five-star freshman, Ja'Corey Brooks, stepped up in a big way to snag four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown while fellow receiver, Jameson Williams, caught seven passes for 62 yards.

Bulldogs Will Bring the Blitz

Metchie’s absence will be felt but the Tide has a next-man-up philosophy and is endowed with so much depth that there are stars just waiting for their moment to shine. Bryce Young is Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winner under center and he kept his uniform clean the last time these teams met due to his unique ability to scramble out of trouble. Nevertheless, he will find the sledding tougher in this contest as the Bulldogs will have learned that rushing four didn’t work against the Tide last time even though it was wildly successful against all the other teams they faced this season.

Therefore, a change of defensive philosophy is undoubtedly in the offing for Georgia and we will likely see many more blitz packages storming the Alabama backfield. The key will be for Young to find his targets quickly and release immediately if he wants to make Georgia pay for a crazy-train pass rush.

Speaking of passing, Young tossed for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns against Georgia in their first meeting while the rushing attack was held relatively in check with 115 yards. However, in a “know thy enemy” piece of coaching, Nick Saban flipped the script in the game against Cincinnati and his team rushed for 301 yards with senior running back Brian Robinson Jr. having an absolute monster day in registering 7.8 yards per carry and 208 rushing yards. Meanwhile, Bryce Young was held to just 181 passing yards but still connected for 3 touchdowns.

Wanna Make a Bet?

Much has been made of John Metchie III being absent for this one but if we review their first meeting, we see that he was gone before the first half. The Tide led by only seven points entering the break and without their primary offensive threat, it was a tenuous lead at best.

However, Alabama would go on to outscore Georgia, 17-7, in the second half because Jameson Williams hauled in a 55-yard touchdown pass from Bryce Young and the defense chipped in with a Jordan Battle 42-yard pick-six, followed by a 41-yard Will Reichard field goal to seal the deal.

So, here’s the thing. If we know Kirby Smart will be letting the hounds loose on defense to get after Bryce Young then so too does Nick Saban. That means we are likely to see quick outs to the tight ends, Cameron Latu and Jahleel Billingsley while running back Brian Robinson Jr. could see more than just the 2 receptions he had in the first meeting with the Bulldogs as an outlet receiver.

Once the Georgia defense gets abused for these short but effective passing schemes that move the chains and keep the Dawgs on their collective heels, then they will pull back the blitz packages. This is when Young can go to his deep threats and run around the edges as he did in their last meeting.

I don’t see why the Tide is the dog here and because the college football odds are giving us only 2 ½ points then I say we squeeze a little more out of this wager and let the bookies pay us the juice rather than the other way around.

NCAAF Pick: Alabama (+120) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Alabama (+120)
Visit Site

NCAAF Pick: Under 52 (-110) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Under 52 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.