The College Football Playoff will be getting underway on New Year’s Eve but did the voting committee get it right this year when they chose Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and Ohio State? Below we discuss the prevailing NCAAF odds and whether there are more deserving teams that should be included in this year’s final four.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (-140) at BetOnline
- Current Record (13-0)
- Notable Wins: Oregon (49-3), Tennessee (27-13), LSU (50-30)
There is no doubt the Bulldogs belong in the CFP as they are not only defending national champions but are also heavy favorites to repeat. Georgia’s defense is suffocating, ranked first in stopping the run and second in points allowed. If the Dawgs have an Achilles heel defensively, it’s a pedestrian pass defense that allows over 215 passing yards per game.
However, Georgia’s offense is about as well-balanced as any coach would want, ranked 19th in passing, averaging 284.5 yards per game, while their rushing attack checks in at 18th, chewing up 207.3 yards per contest. The Bulldogs are the No. 11 scoring team, producing 39.2 points per game, in the tough-as-nails Southeastern Conference.
Next Game: CFP Semifinal
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia – December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
You would have to go all the way back to the 1993 Citrus Bowl to find the first and last time these schools played against each other. Georgia prevailed, 21-14, and ended the season with a 10-2 record.
2. Michigan Wolverines (+300) at BetOnline
- Current Record (13-0)
- Notable Wins: Penn State (41-17), Ohio State (45-23), Purdue (43-22)
Michigan may not be No. 1 in the nation heading into the CFP but they ostensibly drew the weakest team as their semifinal opponent: TCU. Nevertheless, the Wolverines achieved the one thing that is almost as notable as winning the College Football Playoff—they won “The Game”.
That’s right, their annual battle with archrival Ohio State is the pinnacle of both schools’ regular season competition and a victory in college football’s most classic game is always the crowning achievement. Michigan’s 45-23 win over Ohio State propelled them into the Big Ten Championship where they easily defeated Purdue, 43-22, and got their ticket punched to the CFP as the No. 2 team in the nation. Yes, Michigan deserves to be here.
Next Game: CFP Semifinal
No. 43 TCU vs. No. 2 Michigan – December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The line opened at Michigan -9 over TCU but that number has taken a bit of a tumble to where it now stands at Michigan-7 ½ and remains frozen there. Chalk bettors are waiting for the line to fall another hook to the magical 7 but as of this writing no such luck.
This is the first time these schools will have met but before you blindly lay the points on the Wolverines you should know that Michigan has lost their last five bowl games.
3. TCU Horned Frogs (+1600) at BetOnline
- Current Record (12-1)
- Notable Wins: Oklahoma (55-24), Kansas (38-31), Oklahoma State (43-40 2OT), Kansas State (38-28), Texas (17-10)
It would have been impossible to exclude the Horned Frogs from the CFP had they gone undefeated and not lost their biggest game of the season, the Big 12 Championship to Kansas State. The Wildcats are no slouch and ended as the No. 9 team in the nation but it certainly gave much cause for pause when contemplating TCU’s invitation into college football’s final four.
I believe TCU belongs even if their first and only loss is the last thing we recall of their otherwise spectacular season. But a 31-28 overtime loss to a Top-10 team should not preclude them from the CFP. However, the No. 4 spot would have been more appropriate in my estimation where they would have subsequently gotten ripped by Georgia. Instead, the Wolverines should have their way with the Frogs before they prepare for a date with the Dawgs.
Next Game: CFP Semifinal
No. 43 TCU vs. No. 2 Michigan – December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The Frogs have the chops to keep pace offensively with the Wolverines but it’s their defense that is lacking and will ultimately contribute to their demise. The Frogs are ranked 64th against the run, 83rd against the pass,74th in total yards allowed, and 57th in points allowed, permitting 25 points per game. In my NCAAF picks, I have Michigan pulling away in the second half and covering the number in this one.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (+375) at BetOnline
- Current Record (11-1)
- Notable Wins: Notre Dame (22-10), Penn State (44-31)
The Buckeyes lost only one game this season and it nearly cost them a CFP berth. Their 22-point loss to Michigan in The Game had them on the precipice but USC was upset in their Pac-12 Championship which allowed the Buckeyes to slip back in and secure the No. 4 spot in the tournament.
Ohio State belongs here but had they not made it then I would have voted for Alabama to get the bid despite that being a wildly unpopular opinion everywhere except in Tuscaloosa.
Next Game: CFP Semifinal
No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia – December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The Bulldogs are 6 ½ point favorites at many of the best offshore shops, although Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) is hanging a 7 for those who might want to bet the Buckeyes with a full touchdown advantage.
Buckeyes, remember to take a look at our Ohio betting sites before placing any wagers.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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