Boston College vs. Notre Dame NCAAF Week 12 Pick & Prediction: Can Notre Dame Avoid Upset?

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Audric Estime #7 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish runs the ball in for a touchdown. Greg Fiume/Getty Images/AFP

The Boston College Eagles won’t be earning a bowl appearance this season. But they could still ruin Notre Dame’s chance at a New Year’s Six Bowl with an upset win.

Boston College will travel to Notre Dame, coming off a 21-20 win over NC State. Previously, they hadn’t won a game in over a month before knocking off NC State.

On the other hand, Notre Dame had some poor losses this year. But they’ve won four straight games with upset wins over Syracuse and Clemson. They’re also coming off a major win against Navy, 35-32.

Can the Fighting Irish earn their fifth straight win of the season?

Here are our NCAAF picks and betting odds breakdown for Saturday’s matchup between the Boston College Eagles and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

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Boston College Eagles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 02:30 PM EST at Notre Dame Stadium

Boston College’s Offense Can’t Keep Up

The Boston College Eagles are scoring just 19 points per game while averaging 321 yards per game. The passing game has been solid, with nearly 260 yards per game.

However, the Eagles have run for just 61.4 yards per game this year. The Eagles have a solid running back in Pat Garwo III. He’s rushed 296 yards on 99 carries.

The offensive line has really struggled to open up holes in the run game. As a result, Boston College doesn’t have a balanced offense.

Phil Jurkovec was expected to help the Eagles earn a bowl appearance in his senior season. But due to the poor offensive line and minimal weapons other than Zay Flowers, Boston College’s offense has just been really bad.

What About the Defense?

Still, the defense has done its part, giving up 366.3 yards per game. They’ve held teams to 157 yards on the ground. But in the grand scheme of things, Boston College is much better at stopping the run than those stats share.

The coverage is where the Eagles are the weakest. But thanks to a solid pass rush, the passing game hasn’t destroyed Boston College’s defense this year.

Notre Dame’s Just Getting Started

Notre Dame has been criticized all year for poor play. They lost multiple games against bad competition. But since those moments, Notre Dame has responded with four straight wins. Those wins included games against ranked teams like Syracuse and Clemson.

The Fighting Irish are now earning close to 30 points per game while allowing under 23 points per game. The offense has gained nearly 375 yards with over 180 yards coming on the ground.

The Offense

The Fighting Irish are led by Audric Estime, who has rushed for 5.7 yards per carry on 125 attempts. He’s also got nine touchdowns on the season. He’s got a terrific run block unit in front of him. That should still allow Estime some room against a pesky run defense that Boston College presents.

Drew Pyne has also done some good things for Notre Dame after starting the season as a backup. He’s thrown 18 touchdowns and has just five interceptions with a 67.2 QBR. Notre Dame’s success began when he was having success. Especially when turnovers were limited.

On defense, the Fighting Irish have allowed 331.8 yards per game. Only 193.8 yards are coming in the air. Boston College’s only threat is the passing game and they’re not going to have much success against Notre Dame’s secondary.

Boston College vs. Notre Dame: Our Betting Prediction

I’ve got Notre Dame earning a big victory. I know the spread is sitting at 21, but I’m still going to ride it out. Boston College has no run game and will look to throw it on Notre Dame’s special secondary. It’s just not going to earn results.

Meanwhile, Boston College is good against the run defensively. But they’ll still struggle against one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Notre Dame is very good in the run game and will open holes to earn big yardage plays.

At the end of the day, Boston College will be overwhelmed and beaten down, especially as the game starts to get closer to the fourth quarter.

The Final Pick

Let’s back Notre Dame at home. They’ve been playing tremendously recently and aren’t going to stop now. With two terrible losses already taking place, Notre Dame isn’t going to look back. They’ve learned their lesson after those two embarrassing losses to Stanford and Marshall.

Take Notre Dame to win big.

Score Prediction: Notre Dame 37- Boston College 10

NCAAF Pick: Notre Dame -21 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Notre Dame -21 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.