Boston College vs. NC State NCAAF Week 11 Top Picks: Eagles Catching Too Many Points at Wolfpack

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Joseph Griffin Jr. #2 of the Boston College Eagles reacts after scoring a touchdown during the first quarter against the Louisville Cardinals. Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images/AFP.

Online betting sites have released their NCAAF odds for this week’s college football game between Boston College and NC State. Last week, the Boston College offense woke up from a week-long rut, although the team still lost a close affair to Duke.

NC State, meanwhile is coming off a pair of wins, a nail biter against Virginia Tech and a nine-point win against Wake Forest. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game at one of the top-rated sportsbooks

Boston College Eagles vs. NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at Carter-Finley Stadium

Boston College's Offensive Burst 

Last week, Boston College scored 31 points against Duke. This output reminds people of what its offense is capable of. The key is for whoever starts at quarterback to let the best-skill players on the team do the work.

Phil Jurkovec is the official starter, but remains listed as 'questionable' after his knee injury caused him to miss his team's last game.

Emmett Morehead started in his place last week. Despite being a freshman, Morehead showed poise and ably sustained drives simply by not trying to be a hero.

The Eagles have an excellent group of wide receivers, and whoever is their quarterback clearly does not need to be spectacular or incredible in order to help them succeed.

Joseph Griffin 

Despite not being listed atop the Eagle depth chart, Joseph Griffin is a wide receiver worth highlighting.

He put his talent on display last week against the Blue Devils, accruing five receptions for 103 yards.

Last week's game was the third consecutive one in which he achieved 50 or more receiving yards. So, he is reliably involved in the Eagle offense.

NC State vs. Tall Wide's Receivers 

His team's willingness to involve him in the offense is crucial because he matches up excellently against the NC State secondary. To be exact, it is Griffin's height that gives him a tremendous advantage because the Wolfpack struggle to defend taller wide receivers.

When NC State faced Syracuse, Orange wide receiver Oronde Gadsden II caught eight passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns. He is 6'5. Most recently, the Wolfpack faced Wake Forest; wide receiver A.T. Perry, for Wake Forest, caught 12 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown.

Griffin is 6-4 and is therefore physically well-suited to help his quarterback out in a monumental way. Both Syracuse and Wake Forest scored 20+ points against the Wolfpack largely thanks to the help of their tall wide receivers.

Other Wide Receivers 

But Boston College's quarterback won't just have Griffin to rely on. Most notably, wide receiver Zay Flowers is a former All-ACC first-teamer.

Any skeptics who think that Flowers will struggle on Saturday because of his poor statistical output in last year's game against NC State did not watch that game.

With his speed, athleticism, and general route-running ability, Flowers made himself available for big plays downfield.

He just didn't get the ball from his quarterback, who was actually just a walk-on. Flowers is a finesse-type of playmaker who can make big things happen from any point on the field.

NC State's Scoring Handicap

NC State might seem capable of thriving on offense given its 30-point output last week against Wake Forest.

But the Wolfpack were anomalously efficient in terms of a yards-to-points ratio, as they mustered 325 yards of total offense.

If that were a season-long figure, then they would rank 110th nationally in total offense.

The Wolfpack benefitted, last week, from turnovers, which a careful Boston College pass attack that takes what it gets will avoid committing.

Lack of Running Game and Backup Quarterback 

Two key factors speak against the Wolfpack offense. One, their running game is anemic. They had two talented, NFL-caliber running backs who departed from the team. Now, they lack talent at the running back position. As a result, they rank fourth-to-last in the ACC in rushing offense.

Two, they miss starting quarterback Devin Leary, creating an inevitable drop-off in quality at the quarterback position. While their backup has played well, the secondary forms the strength of the Eagle defense. Defensive backs Elijah Jones and Josh DeBerry are both recognizable NFL draft prospects.

Among other things, they ably rely on their good route recognition in order to anticipate and make plays. The Eagles' relatively strong secondary will keep NC State's backup quarterback in check.

The Verdict 

With your NCAAF picks in mind, expect Boston College to keep this game close. The Eagles are capable of too much and match up too well with NC State for the spread to be this high. If the Eagles lose, they won't do so by more than a touchdown.

NCAAF Pick: Boston College +18 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Eagles +18 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.