Best NCAAF Week 11 Props for Saturday: Odd/Even Total Points

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Tavion Thomas #9 of the Utah Utes celebrates with teammates Jadon Redding #97 and Bryson Reeves #19 against the Arizona Wildcats. Chris Gardner/ Getty Images/AFP.

It seems like it should be a coin flip, but this one weird trick just might help you nail those Week 11 college football props.

I love it when a prop comes together. Carpet-bombing the Under on Total Passing Touchdowns for each of the Top 3 Heisman Trophy candidates just seemed like the right thing to do; we nailed 2 out of 3 for our Week 10 NCAAF props here at the home office, with C.J. Stroud (Under 3.5) and Hendon Hooker (Under 1.5) providing the lack of fireworks.

We’ll revisit those quarterback props soon. As we go to press, the list of available Week 11 props is a bit shorter than last time, but all the usual Game Props are there at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), including one right at the bottom of the list that caught my eye.

Odd/Even Total Points

  • Even –115
  • Odd –115

Okay, so it’s your typical “coin flip” kind of prop, right? Ah, but what if we told you the 4 most common final scores in college football are all Odd: 55, 51, 45, and 59?

I suppose some smart guy has taken all the frequencies for all the final scores and added them up to see what percentage of them are odd. I’d do it for you, but I’m in the middle of a kitchen reno. I’ve got to install microwave ovens.

Anyway, for this week’s cunning plan, we need to focus specifically on that 55 at the top of the list. By picking games with that total on the NCAAF odds board, we can improve the chances of our 2 teams actually hitting that odd total, or maybe they’ll land a little low (51) or a little high (59) instead.

After scouring the Week 11 college football odds, it turns out there are zero Saturday games at Bovada with a 55-point total. But a half-point or so, either way, shouldn’t make too much difference. Here’s what we’ve come up with.

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UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave

Saturday, November 12, 2022 – 03:30 PM EST at Yulman Stadium

Hey, it’s this game again. And the total is still available at 54.5 points. We’ve already put the Under in our college football picks, as we are wont to do, but there’s still a better-than-average chance (for final scores) that this one lands on 55 or 51.

Or maybe even 45 for that matter. Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today only projects these 2 teams to score 42.44 points between them. Something in that neighborhood could definitely happen. Maybe that 25% chance of light morning rain in the latest forecast will end up helping both of our bets and our Fumble prop (+155) as well.

NCAAF Pick: Odd Total Points (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Florida International Panthers

Saturday, November 12, 2022 - 07:00 PM EST at Riccardo Silva Stadium

It still feels like these are 2 made-up movie teams, instead of 2 Conference USA teams – okay, the whole conference is that way. There’s a total of 54.5 points attached to this one as well, and yes, we’d probably take the Under on this one, but it’s only a slight lean if we’re reading the numbers right.

Those numbers include Sagarin’s projection for this matchup. He’s got the Owls and Panthers combining for 53.32 points, nestled snugly in that pocket between 51 and 55.

Just for funsies, here were the last 5 combined scores for FAU vs. FIU:

  • 2021: 79
  • 2020: 57
  • 2019: 44
  • 2018: 53
  • 2017: 66

Those numbers might be a bit obsolete now that the Panthers have a new head coach in Mike MacIntyre, but at least Willie Taggart was around for the Owls in 2020 when they hit 57. Consistency counts for something. And hey: 3 out of those 5 scores are odd. Coincidence? Maybe slightly not.

NCAAF Pick: Odd Total Points (-115) at Bovada

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Stanford Cardinal vs. Utah Utes

Saturday, November 12, 2022 - 10:00 PM EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium

The Cardinal sure look tasty as 24-point road dogs at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), but if you’re looking for an additional prop bet to sweeten the pot, there’s a 54-point total for this game – okay, we’re straying an entire point from 55, and we’re landing on an even number, but c’mon. Let’s not split hairs here.

All right, you talked me into it. It’s not super-common in college football to see a combined final score of 54. That number ranks No. 18 on the magic number list for totals, if I’ve counted it right, nestled snugly in that pocket between 66 and 69. Nice.

I should point out before I go, that I don’t have the math in front of me to tell you whether these Odd/Even props have enough potential profit to overcome the -115 vigorish you have to pay on either side. But a fun-size bet might at least give your portfolio some “square” camouflage if you happen to be dealing with one of those European-style sportsbooks.

Find value where you can, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Odd Total Points (-115) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.