Best NCAAF Week 10 Props for Saturday: Total Passing Touchdowns

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Hendon Hooker #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers throws a pass against the Kentucky Wildcats. Eakin Howard/Getty Images/AFP.

Our Week 10 college football picks take us into the prop zone, but will this trio of quarterbacks find the end zone this Saturday?

Finally, we get our chance to smash some quarterback props here at the ranch. These are some of the tastiest wagers on the NCAAF odds board, perhaps none tastier than Total Passing Touchdowns. Casual bettors can’t get enough of this bad boy.

You don’t need to be Knute Rockne to figure out what side we’re on. Of course, we’re putting the Under in our Week 10 college football picks; the only question is which 3 quarterbacks do we choose.

Our obvious targets include all the big-name QBs with the rocket arms and it would help our cause if they’ll be facing sneaky-good defensive teams this Saturday, even more so if said opponents run the ball a lot on offense and grind out the clock. Some cold November rain wouldn’t hurt, either.

With those criteria in mind, we’ve lovingly hand-picked 3 QBs who seem prepared to deliver solid Under value on the NCAAF props market.

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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Ryan Field

C.J. Stroud (Ohio State Buckeyes)

If the first quarterback you thought of was C.J. Stroud, well done. Stroud (29 TD passes) has been lighting it up for the 8-0 Buckeyes, and was the Heisman Trophy favorite for most of the season before falling to +190 behind Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker (–115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).

Here are Stroud’s Total Passing Touchdowns odds for Saturday:

  • Over 3.5 (+120)
  • Under 3.5 (-160)

Vigorish aside, that total is a shade below Stroud’s 3.6 TDs per game, and he’ll be facing a 1-7 Northwestern team with the No. 82-ranked defense on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. That doesn’t sound too promising.

But what if we told you Stroud might not finish the game? No, we’re not sending anyone out to kneecap him; Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has regularly chosen to take Stroud off the field in blowout situations and let Kyle McCord mop things up. It’s happened 5 times already this year.

Granted, that means Ohio State needs to be ahead by a lot of points. And they almost certainly will be by the fourth quarter of this contest, being 38-point road faves at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) and all.

But you can score touchdowns on the ground, too. The Wildcats have allowed 14 rushing TDs and 15 passing TDs this year; turns out their defensive line is far better at pressuring the quarterback than bettors might suspect, ranking No. 25 in sack rate on passing downs compared to No. 126 overall.

The Pick

Saturday’s forecast also calls for rain over Ryan Field, perhaps tapering off just before game time, with winds around 25-30 mph blowing from corner to corner.

Northwestern is kind of meh when it comes to running the ball, but most of our other criteria are being met here, so let’s roll with it.

NCAAF Prop Pick: C.J. Stroud Under 3.5 TD Passes (-160) at Bovada

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C.J. Stroud Under 3.5 TD Passes (-160)
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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday, November 5, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at Sanford Stadium

Hendon Hooker (Tennessee Volunteers)

Apparently, we missed the Hendon Hooker Hype Train here at the home office. I mean, sure, we recommended Tennessee as 8.5-point road dogs versus Georgia, but our focus has been more on their offense in general under head coach Josh Heupel.

Anyway, Hooker (21 TD passes) has definitely thrived in this offense, and we’re hearing on the grapevine that a massive truck-ton of public bettors has come in on the Vols as well. This is Georgia they’ll be facing, though, which leaves us with these odds:

  • Over 1.5 (-135)
  • Under 1.5 (+105)

The Pick

Nothing to help us weather-wise here, but it’s Georgia and it’s Sanford Stadium, and we did pick Under 66 as well. More of the same, please.

NCAAF Prop Pick: Hendon Hooker Under 1.5 TD Passes (+105) at Bovada

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Hendon Hooker Under 1.5 TD Passes (+105)
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California Golden Bears vs. USC Trojans

Saturday, November 5, 2022 - 10:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Caleb Williams (USC Trojans)

Might as well fill out our troika with the No. 3 favorite on the Heisman odds board. Trojans QB Caleb Williams (+1400) has thrown 24 touchdown passes for new head coach Lincoln Riley, but he’s about to face a Cal team that ranks a respectable No. 47 overall on defense according to F+.

Here are the TD odds for Williams this Saturday:

  • Over 2.5 (-170)
  • Under 2.5 (+130)

The Pick

Again, we’re not getting any help from the weather, and Riley’s the best coach the Trojans have had since Pete Carroll, but it’s still Cal vs. USC. The Under went 8-2 in their previous 10 meetings.

Pray for more of the same with this prop at the best sportsbooks, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Prop Pick: Caleb Williams Under 2.5 TD Passes (+130) at Bovada

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Caleb Williams Under 2.5 TD Passes (+130)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.