Best NCAAF Championship Weekend Props for Saturday: Betting on Blue and Maize

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Donovan Edwards #7 of the Michigan Wolverines runs with the ball against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ben Jackson/Getty Images/AFP.

The Michigan Wolverines are so good, we’re putting three of their player props in our college football picks for Champ Week.

Apparently running isn’t as over-valued a skill as throwing and catching. Our Week 13 college football props tried to take advantage of the betting market by hammering the Under on 3 players; Missouri QB Brady Cook (138 yards) absolutely shredded his total, and Iowa State RB Cartevious Norton (71 yards) also went Over without much resistance.

Of all the people, Oregon RB Mar’Keise Irving (52 yards) was the one who cashed in the Under when the Ducks lost their Civil War matchup with Oregon State. Maybe Irving is actually a secret Beaver, his nickname is Bucky, after all.

Anyway, no time for recriminations, because it’s Champ Week on the NCAAF odds board. And if we’re looking at the models correctly, the Michigan Wolverines are about to go ham during Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game. Well, some of them, at least.

For Wolverines fans looking to bet on this game, you can do it on our top Michigan betting sites.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Saturday, December 3, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Lucas Oil Stadium

J.J. McCarthy (Michigan Wolverines)

Over 15.5 Rushing Yards

This is a very good situation indeed for Michigan’s offense. They’ll be playing indoors in Indianapolis, and they’ll be playing the Boilermakers, who have the No. 39-ranked defense on the F+ charts at Football Outsiders. The Wolverines check in at No. 11 on the offensive side of the ball.

In theory, we might recommend a small bet on the Wolverines as 16.5-point favorites at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review), but our college football picks will see a lot more potential profit if we carpet-bomb the Over on these NCAAF player props.

Our first target is Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He’s looking at a total of just 17.5 rushing yards (using the early college football odds from overseas for our analysis), which already seems low enough given McCarthy’s 20-yard average this year.

He might have to scramble a little more than usual. The Wolverines will be without RB Blake Corum for this matchup; Corum injured his left knee last week and decided to go under the knife, hoping to be back in time for the College Football Playoff.

This injury will impact our other props as well, but as far as McCarthy is concerned, he may have to get those legs moving now that Donovan Edwards is the No. 1 tailback. Let’s hope that 16.5-yard total doesn’t come out higher once those NCAAF lines hit our shores.

Over 205.5 Passing Yards

We’re going to stick with McCarthy for our second player prop, and it’s the always-tasty Passing Yards prop, where our hero is staring at a total of 209.5 for Saturday’s contest.

This one’s not quite the 5-star deadbolt lock that our Rushing Yards prop is. McCarthy has been good for 184.6 passing yards per game, but again, this is the Purdue Boilermakers he’ll be facing.

Let’s take a quick look at the defensive F+ rankings for some of the teams McCarthy has played this year, and his passing yards for each game:

  • No. 2: Iowa (155 yards)
  • No. 7: Penn State (145 yards)
  • No. 11: Ohio State (263 yards)
  • No. 38: Maryland (220 yards)
  • No. 47: Rutgers (151 yards)

The Prop Picks

Okay, that Rutgers game is a bit of an outlier, but that’s partly because Corum (20 attempts) and Edwards (15) were busy carrying the ball in what turned into a blowout win for Michigan.

That Maryland result is probably closer to what we can expect this Saturday, especially with Corum sidelined.

NCAAF Prop Pick: J.J. McCarthy Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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J.J. McCarthy Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
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NCAAF Prop Pick: J.J. McCarthy Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-107) at BetOnline

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J.J. McCarthy Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-107)
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Ronnie Bell (Michigan Wolverines)

Someone has to pick up the slack for Michigan’s offense, and it looks like WR Ronnie Bell is the man to do it. Bell only needs 4 catches to beat his total for the Big Ten title game; he’s Michigan’s leading receiver with 51 receptions or 4.25 per game.

Seems like a no-brainer, right? Again, it’s not a lock, Bell only caught 3 passes against Maryland. And Purdue’s defense improves to No. 26 overall when you look specifically at completions allowed (200 of them), while the Terps were No. 94 at 245 catches.

The Prop Pick

Look at the upside, though. They’ll be playing in the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium, unlike that game in Ann Arbor against Maryland. And Corum won’t be there to hog all those touches.

Plus, as we may have mentioned once or twice, it’s Champ Week. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Prop Pick: Ronnie Bell Over 3.5 Receptions (-130) at the Best Sportsbooks

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.