Each week at Bookmakers Review we pick out our best money line, total, and ATS college football picks as we aim to crush the sportsbooks. Let’s see what we have on the docket for this Saturday and cash those tickets!
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, October 23, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at David Booth Memorial Stadium
I initially saw the line on this game and thought that Kansas might be a decent value play considering they were getting a whopping 38 ½ points. I then took a gander at Oklahoma’s previous games in which they were greater than 12-point favorites or greater – which happens to be every game they have played this season with the lone exception of their meeting with Texas – and realized they were 2-4 against the number.
I then figured the Jayhawks just might be able to keep this one within the margins until I looked a bit deeper inside the numbers. The Sooners are laying more points they have all season except for the 52 ½ points they laid when playing one of the worst, if not the worst FCS entry, Western Carolina. They destroyed the Catamounts, 76-0, but that was hardly a surprise.
But the problem is, Kansas is so bad that I can’t believe for a moment they can hang within six touchdowns of the prolific Sooners offense. The Jayhawks have the second-worst defense in the nation, allowing 43.3 points per game, and the third-worst run-stop unit allowing 250 yards, and a pass defense that is not completely abysmal, surrendering 234.7 yards. But unless the Sooners become completely disinterested, I can easily envision them playing sandlot football in this one and scoring at will.
The Sooners are scoring nearly 43 points per game, ranking them fourth in that category. Oh, and speaking of rankings, they are the No. 3 team in the nation. Fortunately, staying competitive as one of the possible four CFP teams means you have to not only win but destroy the opposition, especially one that is perhaps the very worst of all the FBS teams in the nation.
I will grant you that Oklahoma doesn’t have a steel wall defense, allowing almost 25 points per game, but that’s the average number of points they allow. How many do you think the woeful Jayhawks get? Let’s give them 17 points at the max. That means the Sooners need to score 56 points to get the cover.
Is that doable? Ah, yeah, it is very doable. Oklahoma has beaten the Jayhawks by an average of nearly 40 points over the last seven meetings and this Jayhawks iteration could be the worst of the bunch. Conversely, Oklahoma might be the best version of themselves we have seen over that span. It is a square play to be sure the but the public doesn’t always lose, and they won’t in this one.
Boston College Eagles vs. Louisville Cardinals
Saturday, October 23, 2021 - 4:00 PM EDT at Cardinal Stadium
BC has won three of their last four meetings against their conference rivals from Louisville, yet, the college football odds are showing the 3-3 Cardinals as 6 ½ point favorites over the visiting 4-2 Eagles. And when you consider that Louisville has an ole’ defense, surrendering nearly 30 points per game and a passing defense that is so bad, it could be considered downright offensive, surrendering almost 300 yards per game, how can they be considered nearly a touchdown favorite?
Okay, you can counter that the BC offense is far from prolific but, nevertheless, they are scoring 30.8 points per game and should be able to score more than that against this defense they will face on Saturday. Let’s look for an outright Eagles victory in this one and get double our money over at YouWager.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 23, 2021 - 7:30 PM EDT at Kyle Field
You wouldn’t know it by their upset win over Alabama, but Texas A&M has a very good defense. If we toss that 41-38 win out the window, the Aggies are allowing 12.8 points per game against merely mortal football teams. South Carolina falls into that category and owns one highly pedestrian offense, scoring 21.9 points per game.
Chances are the Gamecocks won’t get in the end zone more than a few times against this A&M defense. As for the Aggies’ offense, it is scoring 27.6 points per game but the South Carolina defense is outstanding against the pass (ranked 13th, allowing 172.3 yards per game).
This could set up the A&M ground game to carry much of the load. When you run, so too does the clock. It’s a long way of saying go low in this one.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.