Baylor vs. Texas NCAAF Week 13 Betting Preview: Can Longhorns Stay Focused on Bears?

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Quarterback Blake Shapen #12 of the Baylor Bears looks for an open receiver against the TCU Horned Frogs. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP

Will it be a Black Friday for Baylor or Texas when the Bears travel to Austin to meet the Longhorns on the Week 13 college football betting card?

Let’s see what the NCAAF odds tell us!

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Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns

Friday, November 25, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium

Once a college football team loses control of its own destiny, the toughest job a head coach has is making sure his players remain focused on what they still control instead of allowing their minds to wander off on the other scenarios that have to take place to help them in the standings.

Such is the task ahead of Steve Sarkisian this week in front of his Texas Longhorns’ matchup with the Baylor Bears, with a potential trip to the Big 12 Championship riding on the outcome in the 112th meeting between the I-35 rivals.

Early Line Movement Favors ‘Horns

Opening odds sent out on Sunday made Texas a 7½-point favorite, but early trading sent the spread up to 8-8½ at most offshore shops where 56 is the total.

Can Bears Pick Up Pieces After Tough Loss to TCU?

While Sarkisian will be trying to keep his Longhorns from looking ahead, Baylor’s David Aranda will be trying to keep his team from looking back to the losses over the past two weeks, the first of which was a case of the Bears being embarrassed at home by Kansas State.

Baylor looked to put that 31-3 rout in its rearview mirror this last weekend against No. 4 TCU. This back-and-forth contest saw the Bears leading in the fourth quarter and appearing to have staved off defeat when they stopped a 2-point conversion attempt by the Horned Frogs.

Getting 1½ on the college football odds at many outlets, Baylor backers breathed a sigh of relief with a 28-26 lead, but it didn't last as TCU got the ball back and maneuvered into place for a game-winning field goal as the clock expired.

Texas Coming Off Road Rout in Lawrence

A lot of action came in on Kansas this past week when the Longhorns traveled up to Lawrence looking to bounce back from their own tough loss to TCU, but bettors with Jayhawks +9 tickets from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) didn’t have nearly enough points when the final gun sounded.

Just one week after the Horned Frogs stuffed Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns’ ground game, they ran wild and free on Kansas in a 55-14 final that helped Texas keep its Big 12 hopes alive as they head into the regular season finale.

Robinson rolled up 243 yards on 25 carries, four of those runs crossing the goal line, and Jonathon Brooks added another 108 yards and two scores. Brooks got a chance to play more when Roschon Johnson was injured in the first half. Johnson is questionable this week.

Longhorns Have Won 13 of the Last 15 in Austin

Even though the rivalry has evened up in recent years, Texas still holds a commanding 79-28 lead in the series, plus four ties, with a couple of long winning streaks of 16 (1958-73) and 12 (1998-2009) providing huge chunks of the domination.

Baylor does own current bragging rights following last year’s 31-24 win in Waco, the Bears rallying in the second half with 21 unanswered points to cover a short 3-point spread at home and deal the Longhorns their second consecutive road loss in the rivalry.

  • Each of the last nine clashes finished short of the totals at the best online betting sites
  • The last game in Austin was during the 2020 season, and a 27-16 Texas win pushed an 11-point spread
  • The home team has won five of the last six meetings

Final Thoughts

While we are impressed by the 427 yards Texas rolled up on the ground this past weekend, we’re taking that with the proverbial grain of salt since if it wasn’t for Oklahoma, Kansas would rank last in the Big 12 in run defense.

Baylor’s run defense is head-&-shoulders above the ‘stop unit’ – and we use that term loosely – the Jayhawks call a defense, and the Bears have also done a decent enough job defending the pass, at least good enough to rank ahead of Texas in total defense this season.

The real issue with Baylor is how much pride will the Bears put into beating Texas and playing the role of spoilers since their hopes of defending the conference title are gone.

Longhorns get the win for our NCAAF picks, but the Bears plus the points are the right play. Remember that if you are located in Lone Star State you can check out our Texas sports betting sites guide for the best offshore sportsbooks available.

NCAAF Pick: Baylor +8½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.