Baylor vs. Oklahoma NCAAF Week 10 Betting Preview: Bowl Eligibility for Baylor-Oklahoma Winner

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Blake Shapen #12 of the Baylor Bears throws a pass during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Josh Hedges/Getty Images/AFP.

Every week is the playoffs in the Big 12, and one of Week 10’s top college football betting matchups finds the Baylor Bears on the road at the Oklahoma Sooners.

While it may not be for a slot in the Big 12 Championship Game, this week’s clash between the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners still has something at stake with the winner becoming eligible to receive an invite to a postseason bowl game.

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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, November 05, 2022 – 03:00 PM EDT at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium

A Crazy Year in the Big 12

Let’s back up a step. Baylor proved last year that a team with two conference losses could make the title tilt, and the Bears enter this contest with only two defeats in Big 12 play up to this point, so the Bears could remain in the hunt with a win in Norman on Saturday.

Oklahoma already has three setbacks on their Big 12 card. No team with three notches in the loss column has made the league championship, so the college football odds are working against the Sooners, though in this crazy season, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities.

Tough November Begins for Bears

If David Aranda and the Bears want to return to the Big 12 title game with two losses, the good news is most of that opportunity is in their hands by simply winning the rest of their games. The bad news is a very difficult schedule is in front of them.

Following this matchup with the Sooners, Baylor will host Kansas State and TCU, the top 2 teams in the standings, before ending the regular season in Austin against rival Texas. The Bears would also need an assist from Oklahoma in the Bedlam game with Oklahoma State.

Baylor is coming off an impressive road win a week ago. Closing as a small underdog in Lubbock, the Bears thumped Texas Tech by a 45-17 count, picking off five Red Raiders passes and icing the game with a 21-point fourth quarter.

Can Sooners Play Role of Spoilers?

We are usually talking about whether the Sooners can make the College Football Playoffs at this time of the season, yet here we are wondering if they’ve really turned the corner from a 3-game stretch of losses and can muster up enough pride to just play a spoiler role.

Oklahoma has won two since that 3-game skid, the most recent coming last week on the road in Ames where the Sooners mustered up just enough offense and took advantage of three Iowa State turnovers to post a 27-13 decision as 2-point chalk at BetOnline.

The silver lining that was a win and cover came with a dark cloud. Eric Gray, Oklahoma’s leading rusher, missed time in that game with a leg injury and is listed as questionable this week, as is backup Jovantae Barnes (hamstring).

Bears Have Covered 9 of Last 11 in Norman

In a rivalry that hasn’t been too much of a rivalry, Baylor ended a string of seven consecutive losses to Oklahoma with a 27-14 win in Waco last season that came with the Bears getting 4 points at home. The final was the fourth meeting in a row to come up short of the total.

That string of seven Oklahoma wins wasn’t the longest the Sooners have enjoyed in the series. Oklahoma won the first 20 meetings against Baylor, that stretch running from 1901-2010.

  • Oklahoma has a 28-4 all-time lead in the series, with all four Baylor wins coming since 2011.
  • Baylor’s only win in Norman was a 48-14 rout in 2014, and game that closed with the Sooners favored by 5½ at the best online betting sites.
  • The Bears have covered the last four clashes.

No Surprise: OU Favored Again

While we do not have any historical data for the first matchup between Oklahoma and Baylor in 1901, we do know that the Sooners have been favored in each of the subsequent 31 collisions against the Bears.

That streak will continue on what should be a sunny and breezy afternoon in Norman. Oklahoma is a 3½-point favorite according the midweek consensus on the lines, with the total dropping to the 56½-57½ range since the odds first went out.

Sic ‘Em, Bears!

We shouldn’t put too much stock in how Oklahoma’s defense looked last week. After all, the Sooners were facing a weak Iowa State offense that gave the ball away three times, and still outgained Oklahoma.

Baylor’s defense isn’t quite as good as Iowa State’s, but it should be good enough to make good on a winning college football pick on the moneyline.

NCAAF Pick: Baylor ML (+140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Baylor ML (+140)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.