Auburn vs. Ole Miss NCAAF Week 7 Odds and Picks

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Jaxson Dart #2 of the Ole Miss Rebels runs the ball in the third quarter against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Carly Mackler/Getty Images/AFP.

The SEC will be front and center when Auburn travels to take on the undefeated Rebels of Ole Miss.

Let’s peruse the college football odds, analyze this conference matchup, and keep cashing our NCAAF picks!

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Auburn Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Auburn vs. Ole Miss Analysis

Auburn may be 3-3 on the season but betting on them has been poison for your bankroll.

The Tigers are now 1-5 against the spread after suffering a beating at the hands of No. 2 Georgia last week.

When the dust settled, the Bulldogs had delivered a good old-fashioned beating to the tune of a 42-10 victory over the 27 ½ point road underdogs.

Robby Ashford

Freshman quarterback, Robby Ashford, connected on only 13 passes of 38 attempts and amassed a mere 165 passing yards with 1 touchdown and no picks.

Ashford was also the Tigers leading rusher with 52 of the 93 rushing yards generated from Auburn’s meager ground attack.

If there was one lone bright spot, the Tigers’ offensive line made sure Ashford kept his uniform clean by allowing no sacks on the day but Auburn’s receivers were blanketed by a tenacious Georgia secondary throughout the afternoon.

However, the 10 penalties for 60 yards didn’t help Auburn’s cause, nor head coach Bryan Harsin, who is on the hottest seat in all of college football. A loss to Ole Miss will likely spell the end of his tenure with a bye week looming.


Rebels Remain Perfect

While things are tumultuous at Auburn, the opposite can be said of the state of affairs in Oxford.

Ole Miss is 6-0 on the season, No. 9 in the nation, and was nothing short of offensively dominant in their 52-28 victory over SEC rival Vanderbilt last week.

Dart and Mingo

Sophomore quarterback Jaxson Dart was sensational last Saturday, connecting on 25-of-32 passes for a whopping 448 yards and three touchdowns.

Receiver Jonathan Mingo had quite a day with nine receptions for 247 yards and a pair of trips into the end zone.

First Half vs. Second Half

When the Rebels weren’t torching the Vandy secondary, they were quietly running the rock with Zach Evans garnering 80 of Ole Miss’s 143 rushing yards.

But Ole Miss didn’t put it all together until the second half as they were trailing 20-17 at halftime.

"We have spurts where like that second half where it just looks like we're unstoppable," Jaxson Dart said.

"So, we just got to be able to find that and find that rhythm, just find that consistency every game. And, you know, you know, there's no limit to what we can achieve this year."


Auburn vs. Ole Miss: Pick and Prediction

As if Ole Miss needed any extra incentive to hammer Auburn on Saturday, consider that the Tigers have defeated the Rebels in their last six meetings and are 4-1-1 against the number in those contests.

I’m not sure what metric to use if we are giving Auburn a snowball’s chance against the Rebels this week.

Naturally, the line set by top-rated sportsbooks is always the ultimate equalizer and in this case, we see Ole Miss as 14 ½ to 15-point home chalk depending on where you shop.

Teams' Metrics

Speaking of metrics, there are two that I see that will tell the tale in this game. The first of which is the Rebels' 11th-ranked points-allowed defense (14.5) versus the 113th-ranked offense (20.3) of the Tigers.

Moreover, Auburn can’t get any traction passing the ball as they are averaging just 218.8 passing yards per game (98th), and you can’t play catch-up if you can’t strike through the air, and they will undoubtedly be playing from behind so this will be a factor.

Secondly, Ole Miss is equipped with the 7th-ranked rushing attack in the nation, averaging 242 yards per game, and will be facing Auburn’s 93rd-ranked (165.8) run-stop unit.

That’s a recipe for ground-and-pound, smash-mouth football. It’s also a reason why this game will likely go under the posted total as the clock won’t stop with the running plays and Auburn will be kept off of the field and scoring few points.


Trends

  • Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Tigers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Rebels' last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Under is 8-0 in the Rebels' last 8 games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Rebels’ last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35 - Auburn 14

NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -14 ½ (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Ole Miss -14 ½ (-104)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 54 ½ (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 54 ½ (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.