Arkansas vs. Auburn NCAAF Week 9 Betting Preview: Finding Value at Bottom of SEC

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Robby Ashford #9 of the Auburn Tigers reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels. Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP.

Life ain’t easy in the SEC, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on teams having a rough go of things like the Arkansas Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers who meet Saturday.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Auburn Tigers

Saturday, October 29, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Jordan-Hare Stadium

It’s not like either Arkansas or Auburn were up there on the NCAAF futures before the season began with win totals of 7.5 and 6.5, respectively, but the Razorbacks and Tigers are still looking to shake the underachieving blues when they meet in Week 9.

Finding value on the NCAAF odds is tough regardless of where teams are in the standings, but it’s especially tough when they are a couple of 1-3 teams in conference play like Arkansas and Auburn are in the SEC West. Sometimes, however, the value is in the fact there’s no value at all.

Both Sides With Losing ATS Records

Arkansas and Auburn are a combined 5-9 against the spread this season, making it difficult to imagine there is much value in playing either the Razorbacks or the Tigers. Saturday’s gap at the books is -3.5 on Arkansas.

The 2 teams have been a little more profitable in the totals column at 9-4-1 O/U/P, but most of that is on Arkansas and its 5-1-1 record. The scoreboard target is running 61.5-62.5 depending on where one shops for their lines.

Arkansas Coming Off Bye Week

Arkansas snapped a 3-game skid 2 weekends ago with a 52-35 win at BYU. In the process, Sam Pittman’s troops enjoyed an impressive performance on offense by churning out nearly 650 yards of offense and converting 12 of 15 third-down attempts.

Junior quarterback KJ Jefferson directed the attack with a career-high 5 touchdown passes, all of those coming in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and 3 of them to Matt Landers, a senior transfer who began his collegiate career at Georgia.

The contest closed as a pick ‘em at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) after the Razorbacks had been underdogs in their 3 previous games, all losses to conference rivals Texas A&M, Alabama, and Mississippi State. Arkansas is 3-4 against the spread for the season.

War Eagle Mired in 3-Game Losing Streak

Bryan Harsin and the Tigers also took Week 8 off. Auburn will be trying to end a 3-game losing streak of its own following setbacks at home to LSU and on the road against then-No. 2 Georgia and then-No. 9 Ole Miss.

The loss to Ole Miss was the most recent. Auburn simply was not ready to play at the outset, falling into an early 21-0 hole that was too deep to recover from in a 48-34 defeat that at least saw the Tigers’ backers eke out a cover as 15-point underdogs at the best sportsbooks.

Auburn turned it over 3 times, 2 of the giveaways immediately turned into 7 points by an opportunistic Rebels offense. The Tigers, who rank last in the SEC in run defense, were never able to stop the Ole Miss ground game and gave up a season-high 448 yards rushing.

Auburn Has Won Last 6 Meetings

This will be the 32nd time for the Razorbacks and Tigers to battle on a gridiron, with their 1984 Liberty Bowl matchup the only collision that wasn’t part of an SEC schedule. Auburn has won the last half-dozen games to build a 19-11-1 lead in the series.

Auburn ran its win streak to 6 last year in Fayetteville with a 38-23 victory, using its own ground game to grind out about a 9-minute advantage on the clock while converting 10-of-19 third down attempts.

  • Underdogs have covered the last 2 meetings after chalk-cashed the previous 7.
  • The last 3 games, and 6 of the last 7, went past the totals.
  • It has been 10 years since the Razorbacks won at Jordan-Hare, pulling off a mild upset in 2012 with a 24-7 triumph.

Will Rain Hold Off on Saturday?

The current forecast for the matchup calls for cloudy skies and the thermometer in the upper-60s at kickoff, along with 10-15 mph out of the east (crosswind), but bettors will want to get a fresh update before making their wagers since rain is in the late-afternoon mix for Auburn.

A Well-Grounded Pick

Most of the action Saturday should take place on the ground. With Auburn the worst in the SEC against the run and Arkansas second-best running the pigskin, that points to what seems to be an easy play on the Razorbacks.

The value here, however, is in how much time those handoffs will drain the clock, leading to college football picks against the rivalry trend by playing the final score never reaching the total.

NCAAF Pick: Under 62.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Under 62.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.