Alabama vs. LSU NCAAF Week 10 Best Bets: SEC West Title Hangs in the Balance

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Alabama invades Tiger Stadium to take on LSU and the winner will have the clearest path to representing the West Division in the SEC Championship.

Let’s review the college football odds and break this pivotal matchup down as we look to continue to cash our college football picks!

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers

Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Tiger Stadium

Alabama rebounded from a 52-49 shootout loss to Tennessee with a resounding 30-6 victory over Mississippi State two weeks ago and covered as 21½ point home chalk. It was a good win for the team and a morale boost for the Bama defense that was uncharacteristically torched by the Vols the week before.

Had it not been for the Tide defense laying back and playing deep off of the Mississippi State receivers on their last possession with under four minutes remaining, this would have been a shutout victory. However, the Bulldogs marched down the field and scored their first and only touchdown of the game with no time left on the clock.

The SEC’s leading passer, Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, was held to completing just half of his 60 passing attempts and 231 yards through the air while the Bulldogs’ rushing attack was limited to only 62 yards. Alabama’s Brice Young added two more touchdown passes and 249 yards to his resume but the Tide’s ground game refused to roll, garnering just 29 yards.

Tigers Roar for Kelly

Say what you will about Brian Kelly, but the former Notre Dame head coach who job-hopped his way over to LSU for an opportunity to compete against the best in the nation has done an amazing job this season.

LSU ended the 2021 campaign with a 6-7 record (5-7-1 ATS) but what a difference a year and a new head coach make as they enter this matchup with the Tide at 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 against the number.

The Tigers under Brian Kelly have had only one poor performance this season, and it came against the steamrolling Tennessee Volunteers, a team that has a habit of making good teams look bad. LSU was installed as 2 ½ point home dogs to the Vols but they were subsequently blown out to the tune of a 40-13 thrashing.

But the Tigers have managed two consecutive wins and covers since that October 8th defeat, a 45-35 victory over Florida in the Swamp followed by an even more impressive 45-20 win over No. 7 Ole Miss.

Junior quarterback, Jayden Daniels, was at his best in rallying his team from a 17-3 deficit early in the second quarter and ending with two passing and three rushing touchdowns for a combined 369 all-purpose yards in the team’s 25-point victory.

Team Trends

  • Alabama is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
  • Alabama is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Alabama is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • LSU is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
  • LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
  • LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Total Trends

  • Under is 5-1 in Alabama’s last 6 games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 4-1 in Alabama’s last 5 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
  • Under is 11-3 in Alabama’s last 14 games following a bye week.
  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Louisiana State.
  • Under is 6-0 in LSU’s last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in LSU’s last 6 games following a straight-up win.

Alabama vs. LSU: Pick and Prediction

Even though LSU was a shadow of its former self when Joe Burrow led this team to national championship glory only a few years ago, the Tigers still put up a good fight against Bama last season, dropping a 20-14 decision but easily covering as 29½ point road dogs.

This year the sportsbooks have adjusted mightily for this year’s improved Tigers’ edition as well as the change of venue in installing the Crimson Tide as 13 ½ to 14-point road chalk depending on where you shop.

Despite Alabama’s impressive defensive showing in their last performance, holding No. 24 Mississippi State to just six garbage-time points, we should understand this is not a vintage Saban defensive unit. Are they good? Absolutely, currently ranked 13th in total yardage allowed (295.6 YPG) and 8th in points allowed (16.6 PPG).

But they are exploitable and LSU has a dynamic dual-threat under center with plenty of weapons around him while the Tigers’ defense is good enough to give Bryce Young and the Tide offense its share of problems. And we should see a heavy lean on Alabama’s 17th-ranked rushing attack because LSU is very good at defending the pass but pedestrian against the run.

Expect a chess match in this one with the game played between the 20s. I like LSU to keep this within the margins and this game to go low.

Score Prediction: Alabama 31 – LSU 23

NCAAF Pick: LSU +14 (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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LSU +14 (-117)
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NCAAF Pick: Under 58 ½ (-110) at BetOnline

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Under 58½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.