Alabama vs. Arkansas: NCAAF Week 5 Picks and Prediction

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Quarterback KJ Jefferson #1 of the Arkansas Razorbacks scrambles with the ball against the Texas A&M Aggies. Tom Pennington/Getty Images/AFP.

Following opposite results last Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks collide in one of the biggest matchups in Week 5.

We’ve got a free NCAA football pick for the SEC rivalry.

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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, October 01, 2022 – 03:30 PM EDT at Razorback Stadium

Chaos, in one shape or another and in various proportions, is part of every college football campaign, and the result of Saturday’s skirmish between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks is one of those that could provide more than its fair share of chaos.

Not only would an Arkansas win have a huge effect on the SEC standings, it would ultimately have a bearing on the entire College Football Playoff picture, snap a long win streak for Alabama in the rivalry.


Tide Seeking 15th/16th Straight Win Over Hogs

Figuring out just what the series record is between these two teams takes a little work, with all of the times the Crimson Tide have been convicted by the NCAA for being naughty and had to forfeit or vacate their winning efforts.

If we account for just the happenings on a gridiron, Alabama has a 25-8 stranglehold on the rivalry with Arkansas.

Officially, it’s 22-8 with the Crimson Tide having won the last 14 meetings, or 15-straight if you include the 2007 game that the Great Tuscaloosa Textbook Scandal wiped out.

  • The Razorbacks gave the Crimson Tide a scare last year, but Alabama eventually prevailed at home 42-35 with Arkansas backers cashing +20½-point tickets.
  • With attendance reduced by the flu in 2020, Alabama crushed Arkansas 52-3 in Fayetteville. · Totals have split the NCAAF odds in the last four games played in Arkansas.


‘Bama Rolls in Conference Opener

Most of the 96,246 inside Bryant-Denny Stadium last Saturday night enjoyed a fun and relaxing evening, and that includes one Mr. Nick Saban who was actually seen smiling on the sidelines following Alabama’s 55-3 cakewalk against Vanderbilt.

Bettors couldn’t truly relax until second-string tailback Jamarion Miller scored a couple of fourth quarter touchdowns to beat the 40½-point spread at shops like BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but the Crimson Tide dominated the Commodores in every sense of the word.

Three different quarterbacks combined to throw for an even 400 yards, with Bryce Young accounting for the majority if that to go with 4 touchdowns, and the Alabama offensive line protected those quarterbacks all while opening lanes for the backs to rush for 228 yards.


Razorbacks Come Up Short Against Aggies

Everything was going according to plan for Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks who soared to an early 14-0 lead over Texas A&M in their annual showdown at Jerry’s playground in Arlington, but then chaos swooped in to help the Aggies to a 23-21 decision.

Arkansas was getting 2 points at a lot of the top-rated sportsbooks, resulting in a lot of pushes for college football bettors, and it all came down to a missed field goal with 1:30 left on the clock that would’ve given the Razorbacks the dubya.

It also came down to the lone turnover in the game during the first half, one that cost the Razorbacks at least a 10-point swing on the scoreboard as they outgained the Aggies 415-343 and didn’t hurt themselves otherwise with just three penalties.


Double-Check Injuries and Weather

As always, bettors should get updates for the matchup on the injury front before laying down their dough on a game like this, but it appears both sides came out of Week 4 in relatively good health, especially on the Arkansas side.

Alabama didn’t get off scot-free in the rout of Vanderbilt. Byron Young, one of the starters on the Crimson Tide defensive line had to be carted off in the second half with an ankle injury, and the senior is on the day-to-day list for the time being.

The first Saturday of October should be a beautiful day in the Ozarks, starting off with crisp temps in the 50s before the thermometer climbs to the upper-70s around game time with plenty of sunshine for the fans inside the Hog House.


Alabama vs. Arkansas: Pick and Prediction

Alabama went out -15 to initiate the wagering proceedings, and early action on the Crimson Tide has sent the spread up as high as -17 at some shops, with 61-61½ for the total.

This is the start of a huge 3-game run on the schedule for the Crimson Tide, who will host Texas A&M next week and travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee in Week 7.

Alabama will get the stretch off to a winning not, but it won’t be enough to cover the spread while the total falls short. Take the points in a 34-21 final.

NCAAF Pick: Arkansas +17 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Arkansas +17
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NCAAF Pick: Under 61½ (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Under 61½ (-109)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.