Air Force vs. Nevada College Football Week 12 Picks and Predictions

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Quarterback Haaziq Daniels #4 of the Air Force Falcons hands the ball off to running back Brad Roberts #20. Loren Orr/Getty Images/AFP

The Air Force Falcons finally got back into the win column after previously losing two straight. Can Air Force ride the momentum against the Nevada Wolfpack on Friday? Let’s see the NCAAF odds.

Air Force Falcons vs. Nevada Wolf Pack

Friday, November 19, 2021 – 9:00 PM EST at Mackay Stadium

The Air Force Falcons finally got back in the winning column last week with a win over Colorado State, 35-21. The Falcons had lost two straight games to San Diego State and Army by one possession prior to beating Colorado State. On the other hand, Nevada watched their two-game winning streak end with a loss to San Diego State by two points last week.

The moral of the story is that San Diego State has been lucky, I guess. Anyway, with both teams sitting at 7-3, this is going to be a fun one. Air Force has been the much better defense this season, allowing just 176 points through 10 games. The pass rush has been fantastic and the tackling has been superior in comparison to their opponents. The Falcons allow just 17.6 points per game this year along with just 287.4 yards per game.

Through 10 games, it’s extremely hard to hold opponents to under 300 yards on average. Yet, the Falcons have done that with textbook tackling and a pass rush that is fierce. Offensively, Air Force has rushed for 311 yards per game. Using the triple option, Air Force has been extremely dominant on the offensive end rushing the football.

The offensive line has done their part behind running back Brad Roberts who has 10 touchdowns on the year on 235 attempts for 1,064 yards. On the other hand, Nevada is also 7-3 but has a defense that has really struggled against the run game, ironically.

Running back Brad Roberts #20 of the Air Force Falcons. Loren Orr/Getty Images/AFP

Nevada has allowed 138.3 yards per game on the ground but has been worse than the box score will show. There have been a lot of missed tackles and players out of place and getting beat on the line in the run game. Nevada is still scoring 34.9 points per game this season, even with just 64.1 yards rushing. Even though Nevada throws the ball so often, the offensive line in pass protection has not been good at all. Air Force should be able to motor through Nevada's protection.

The passing game is still elite with quarterback Carson Strong under center. He’s got 28 touchdowns and just seven interceptions on the year. However, things would be so much better if the offensive line was able to step up and give Strong more time in the pocket.

Quarterback Carson Strong #12 of the Nevada Wolf Pack. Peter Aiken/Getty Images/AFP

Prediction

Nevada’s got a solid offense but it’s not an elite offense. Strong is a fantastic quarterback but in games where he’ll need as much help as possible, he won’t get it. Give me Air Force, on the road, to run all over Nevada on the offensive end and force turnovers on the defensive end with a terrific pass rush.

For my NCAAF picks, I’ll go with the money line but if you’d like to play it safe, you can take the two points or even buy it up to 3.5 for some insurance.

NCAAF Pick: Air Force +105 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.