Miami vs. Texas A&M NCAAF Week 3 Picks: Aggies Will Bounce Back At Home

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Texas A&M was among the upset losers in Week 2 around college football, but we think the Aggies rebound nicely this Saturday against visiting Miami.

Here’s our play with odds from BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks

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Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M Aggies 

Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Kyle Field 

One of two matchups in Week 3 around college football featuring a pair of ranked teams is this non-conference affair between No. 13 Miami and No. 24 Texas A&M. I’m a bit surprised that ESPN College GameDay won’t be in College Station; I think the plan was for it to be, but that got scuttled when the Aggies were upset at home Saturday by Appalachian State.

Now the crew will go to Boone, N.C., for the Mountaineers’ matchup vs. Troy. This is the first of a home and home between these programs as A&M will visit south Florida on Sept. 9, 2023. They last played in 2008 and Miami won 41-23 on the road.

The Hurricanes are 3-7 straight up and 4-6 ATS on the NCAAF picks in their past 10 vs. the SEC (which is where I think they eventually end up). They last played an SEC school to open the 2021 season, losing handily to Alabama.  

A&M is 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS in its past 10 vs. ACC schools. The Aggies most recently played a team from the conference in the Orange Bowl following the 2020 season, losing 41-27 to North Carolina. 

UM’s Van Dyke Not Quite Same Yet 

Miami (2-0) was a 27.5-point home favorite on Saturday against Southern Miss and not a huge surprise the Canes didn’t cover in a 30-7 win as they probably were looking ahead to this matchup a bit. It was only 10-7 at the half.  

Southern Miss seemed to wilt in the Florida heat as over the game’s final 30 minutes, UM held the ball for more than 20 minutes, rushed for 130 yards, limited the Golden Eagles to 91 total yards and 0.4 yards per rush and forced three turnovers.

QB Tyler Van Dyke, a potential first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was 21-for-30 for 263 yards, a TD and pick. He closed last season with six straight games of at least 300 yards passing but hasn’t gotten there yet in 2022.

What Need to Improve

Van Dyke’s streak of seven straight games with multiple TD passes also ended. “I have to make better throws,” Van Dyke said of Saturday’s win. “We’re not going to win next week if I played like I played today.” 

Miami’s best player so far has been running back and Ole Miss transfer Henry Parrish Jr., who rushed 23 times for 109 yards and a score and has 205 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns overall. UM moved up two spots in the new AP poll to No. 13.

The Hurricanes went 2-1 against Top-25 opponents last season. UM is 3-8 ATS on the NCAAF odds in its past 11 non-conference games.  

Aggies Off Shocking Loss 

Texas A&M (1-1) fell from No. 6 in the AP Top 25 to No. 24 after its shocking 17-14 loss to Appalachian State in College Station on Saturday, although there’s certainly no shame in losing to App State, a great program.

What has to concern Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher, though, is that the Mountaineers held the ball for a whopping 41:29 and allowed the Aggies only 38 total snaps.  

While Fisher landed one of the best recruiting classes ever, I’m not sure he has a great quarterback on his roster. Haynes King was just 13-for-20 for 97 yards in the loss. He missed several open receivers.

King beat out LSU transfer Max Johnson and true freshman Conner Weigman in fall camp but might have a short leash in this one. Fisher actually didn’t rule out changing QBs: “We'll evaluate everything we do.” 

Devon Achane

One bright spot in the loss was junior running back Devon Achane, who returned a late third quarter kickoff 95 yards for the second 90-plus yard special teams touchdown of his career.

He also had a 96-yard kick return score against Alabama last season. He also had a rushing score vs. App State.

Achane leads the SEC and ranks No. 2 nationally with a 48.0 kickoff return average. He trails only Key’Shawn Smith of Miami, who leads the way with a 61.3 average. 

Texas A&M Stats

Texas A&M ranks third in the SEC in scoring defense, allowing just 8.5 points per game, and boasts the best passing defense in the league as it is giving up just 112.5 yards per game.

Quick starts have been key under Jimbo Fisher. The team is 27-4 under him when scoring first and a perfect 25-0 when leading after the first quarter. Texas A&M is 15-5 ATS in its past 20 non-conference games.  

Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M Aggies: Betting Pick for NCAAF Week 3

I’ll be honest in that this is tough for me because I am a Hurricanes fan. I certainly hope they win, but think they lose by a touchdown something like 27-20.

The SEC is simply that much better overall than the ACC. In a way, App State beating A&M was the worst thing that could happen to Miami.  

Score Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Miami 20 

NCAAF Pick: Texas A&M -5 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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