Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Monday, January 03, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Mackey Arena
It’s getting very hard to win road games in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is 10-2 on the season and ranked 24th overall and yet are +12.5 point underdogs at the NCAAB odds board in this game, on the road, against Purdue.
There’s no question that on paper, Purdue is the better team. Purdue is one of the top offenses in college basketball, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 60.2 percent on the season.
The Boilermakers are hitting 41.1 percent three-point shots and 59.1 percent from inside the arc. On top of that, Purdue shoots a respectable 73.8 percent from the line and continues to dominate the glass, bringing down nearly 40 percent of offensive rebounds.
Wisconsin isn’t all that bad on the defensive end. The Badgers have been above average throughout the season, holding opponents to a 47.8 percent effective field goal percentage while limiting offensive rebounds to 26 percent. But while Wisconsin is above average on defense, Purdue is an elite offense. You just expect Purdue to do its thing on the offensive end, no matter who is guarding.
On the other hand, the Badgers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 46.2 percent. Wisconsin has hit just 30.4 percent of threes and 46.5 percent of twos this season. They’ll usually get to the foul line at a high rate but Purdue is one of the better teams when it comes to keeping opponents off the line.
The Badgers continue to limit turnovers and should be able to win the turnover battle against Purdue, but without shooting at a high percentage, it’s still going to be difficult to win this game if you’re Wisconsin.
Purdue assists on 62.2 percent of buckets while Wisconsin only assists on 41.7 percent. The Boilermakers just have more cohesion and play together better. And more importantly, Purdue has the deeper team with Trevion Williams coming off the bench with 13.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.
Of course, Purdue is the better team. But 12.5 points just seems like a whole lot of points against another Top 25 team like Wisconsin. The Badgers should be able to limit turnovers in this game and that would be beneficial, giving Wisconsin more opportunities to keep this game close.
The Badgers already knocked off Houston on a neutral court and defeated other quality teams like Saint Mary’s and Indiana to name a couple.
There’s no doubt that this game will be tough but I’ll take a chance on Wisconsin getting 12.5 points in this game. That’s just too many points. If I saw Purdue at even -6 or -7 at the top-rated books I’d consider Purdue, but 12.5 against a Wisconsin team that always seems to stick around in games? I’m good. Give me Wisconsin +12.5.
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