Villanova vs. Baylor Big East-Big 12 Battle Preview and Best Bet

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Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua #23 of the Baylor Bears defends against. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Baylor Bears will play its first top 10 games of the season while Villanova will play its fourth. Will that have any bearing on the outcome of today’s game between Baylor and Villanova? Let’s dive into the college basketball odds before making our pick.

Villanova Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears

Sunday, December 12, 2021 – 03:00 PM EST at Ferrell Center

The Villanova Wildcats and Baylor Bears will keep the Big East-Big 12 Battle going with an interesting game at the Ferrell Center today at 3:00 PM EST on ABC. The Wildcats have just two losses on the season and both of those losses came against two top 10 teams in the nation. The Wildcats also have a win against Tennessee on the year and according to KenPom, Tennessee is the 10th best team in the nation. So, via KenPom, the Wildcats will take on their fourth top 10 opponents of the season. Don’t be thinking Villanova will come out scared against Baylor.

Meanwhile, Baylor doesn’t have a single top 10 win this season but is undefeated. The Bears knocked off Michigan State earlier in November but have played just one game since Friday, November 26. Baylor could be rusty or well-rested. If they looked anything like UCLA did last night, Baylor will be just fine with a long week of rest. All the Bears need to do is win today. If Baylor defeats Villanova, Baylor will be the top team in the nation when the new weekly rankings come out.

Baylor is averaging 28.2 percent turnovers this season, which is good for second in the nation. However, Villanova is only allowing 13.3 percent of turnovers on the offensive end. Something will have to give here. I’ll go on a limb and say that Villanova will turn the ball over more than 13 percent but less than 28% in this game. Villanova is shooting 39.2 percent from downtown and 50 percent from inside. It’s usually a three-point frenzy with Villanova but throughout the season, those shots have gone down. Against Baylor, it might be a bit more tricky. Baylor has held opponents to 28.8 percent from downtown and rank seventh in the nation in defensive adjusted efficiency.

On the other hand, Baylor ranks fifth in the nation in offensive adjusted efficiency with an effective field goal percentage of 54.6 percent. Baylor is dominating the offensive glass, bringing down 41.2 percent of offensive rebounds while shooting 56.1 percent inside. The Bears aren’t all that dominant from long range but Villanova is still allowing teams to shoot 33 percent from downtown. Baylor will ultimately hit open looks and they’ll crash the glass to make sure of other opportunities.

Prediction

With that said, I like Baylor at -3,5 for my best bet. Both offenses are tremendous but Villanova will rely on three-point shots and will more than likely turn the ball over more than it’s used to. Baylor is just a more complete team, with more depth and more ability to do the little things well on the court. Even if Villanova limits the turnovers, Baylor should still be able to defend the three well enough and clean up the glass on misses. I’ll ride with Baylor at home at top sportsbooks, as the Bears look for that top ranking in the AP Poll next week.

NCAAB Pick: Baylor -3.5 (-110) via BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Baylor -3.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.