NCAAB Pick: Khalil Shabazz – Over 20.5 Points (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary:
- Khalil Shabazz (San Francisco) – Over 20.5 Points (-115)
- Julian Strawther (Gonzaga) – Under 16.5 Points (-120)
- Tyrell Roberts (San Francisco) – Over 2.5 Assists (+110)
The San Francisco Dons will take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs for the third time this season. The Dons fell short in both outings, but maybe the third time’s a charm.
Here’s a look at three player props to add to your top NCAAB picks for tonight’s WCC semifinal matchup between the San Francisco Dons and Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Remember, fans from the Bay Area who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated California betting sites.
San Francisco Dons vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Monday, March 6, 2023 – 11:30 PM EST at Orleans Arena
Matchup Analysis
Can San Francisco Knock Out Gonzaga in WCC Semis?
The San Francisco Dons came close to upsetting the Gonzaga Bulldogs earlier this year. The Dons lost 77-75 at home and then 99-81 on the road against the Bulldogs. Beating Gonzaga is always challenging. But a neutral court may help.
The Dons have a quality offense that can do damage against the Bulldogs. San Francisco has shot 36.4% from deep and 52.9% from inside the arc. They’ve also hit 74.5% from the foul line and get to the foul line at an above-average rate.
The Dons have turned the ball over nearly 20% of the time. That’s the only major issue for the Dons heading into this game on the offensive end.
Any Hope of a Bulldogs Upset?
Meanwhile, Gonzaga has allowed teams to shoot 35.1% from three and 51.9% from inside the arc. Opponents have even nailed 73.4% from the foul line against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs don’t have a quality defense but have at least limited offensive rebounds to 25.8%.
Teams aren’t getting to the line at a high rate against the Bulldogs, and Gonzaga has earned 19% of turnovers.
The turnovers could increase against San Francisco, but if the Dons can limit turnovers and put shots up, they’ll have a chance to pull off a wild upset against Gonzaga based on current NCAAB odds.
Can Gonzaga Prove It Is NCAA Tournament Contender Worthy?
The Bulldogs are the best offense in the nation, according to KenPom. The Bulldogs have shot 37.8% from long range and 59.1% from inside the arc. They’ve limited turnovers to 14.7% and have earned over 31% of offensive rebounds.
Gonzaga has also been getting to the foul line slightly more than San Francisco, and with the Dons fouling at a higher rate, it’s likely that Gonzaga gets to the foul line more and earns more freebies.
Gonzaga only shoots 69.9% from the foul line this season. That’s the one issue for Gonzaga on the offensive end.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has held teams to 33.6% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc. The defense has done better defending shots than Gonzaga has this season.
Khalil Shabazz (San Francisco)
Over/Under Points
- Shabazz just had a 38-point performance against Santa Clara in the quarterfinals of the WCC.
- He added 25 points against Gonzaga the last time out.
- Shabazz has an offensive rating of 113, good for 434th in all of college basketball.
- He’s also receiving 24.5% of SF’s possessions when he’s on the floor.
- He’ll likely play the full 40 minutes in a win-or-go-home scenario.
NCAAB Pick: Khalil Shabazz – Over 20.5 Points (-115) at BetOnline
Julian Strawther (Gonzaga)
Over/Under Points
- Strawther averages 15.3 points per game this season.
- He’s only scored 11 points in his last two games.
- Strawther isn’t the first player on Gonzaga in terms of usage.
- He’s 1-for-8 from downtown over his last two games and 6-for-18 in those two games from the field.
NCAAB Pick: Julian Strawther – Under 16.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline
Tyrell Roberts (San Francisco)
Over/Under Assists
- Roberts averages 2.2 assists per game this season.
- He had three assists against the Bulldogs earlier this season.
- Like Shabazz, Roberts will likely play a full game without any rest in a must-win game.
- He’s 250th in the nation in turnover rate, which means he rarely turns the ball over when the ball is in his hands.
- Gonzaga’s defense is weak, allowing teams to shoot 35.1% from deep and 51.9% from inside the arc. That should help Roberts and the Dons rack up assists in this fast-paced game.
NCAAB Pick: Tyrell Roberts – Over 2.5 Assists (+110) at BetOnline
Keys to the Game
The difference will be Gonzaga’s ability to get to the foul line more often and the overall offensive play from their players.
San Francisco has only allowed 26.4% of offensive rebounds and has earned nearly 18% of turnovers.
Of course, Gonzaga has the better offensive players and should still have more success on that end. But if San Francisco limits turnovers and continues to get quality looks from the floor, the Dons will hit those shots and keep this game close.
I like Gonzaga to win, but San Francisco will at least cover the 14.5-point spread.
Above are our top choices of NCAAB player props for your consideration in tonight’s WCC Semifinal matchup.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
