NCAAB Pick: Mike Miles Jr. Over 16.5 Points (-125) at BetOnline
The TCU Horned Frogs will take on the Kansas State Wildcats in tonight’s Big 12 Tournament matchup.
TCU is going to be without Eddie Lampkin at the center. Who will step up on TCU? Here are some player prop betting picks for tonight’s late Big 12 matchup.
Let’s look at today’s college basketball odds board and find the best value. And remember that you can go over our Texas betting guide to find the best betting sites in the Lone Star State.
Picks Summary
- Mike Miles Jr. Over 16.5 Points (-125)
- Emanuel Miller Over 7.5 Rebounds (-140)
- Markquis Nowell Over 6.5 Assists (-130)
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Thursday, March 9, 2023 – 09:30 PM EST at T-Mobile Center
Mike Miles Jr. (TCU)
Over/Under Points
- He averages 17.2 points per game this season.
- Mike Miles is used 25.7% of the time on the floor this season.
- He’s shot 50% from the floor this season despite taking 83 threes on the year.
- Miles had 17 against Oklahoma in his last Big 12 matchup.
- Miles Jr. must come up big for TCU, especially without Lamkpkin.
- His volume should increase, and in an up-tempo game, more opportunities will come.
NCAAB Pick: Mike Miles Jr. Over 16.5 Points (-125) at BetOnline
Emanuel Miller (TCU)
Over/Under Rebounds
- Miller has averaged 6.5 rebounds per game this season.
- He’s added 8.5 rebounds per game in two games against Kansas State this season.
- Miller has a defensive rebounding percentage of 18%, which is 385 in all college basketball.
- He’s added 29 rebounds in his last three games while playing at least 30 minutes.
- Miller should play many minutes in tonight’s Big 12 Tournament game.
NCAAB Pick: Emanuel Miller Over 7.5 Rebounds (-140) at BetOnline
Markquis Nowell (Kansas State)
Over/Under Assists
- Nowell has averaged 7.7 assists per game this season.
- He’s had 5.5 assists per game against TCU this year through two games.
- Nowell has added at least eight assists in his last four Big 12 games.
- He’s third in the nation in assist rate, with 40.8.
- Kansas State will play up-tempo, leading to more possessions and opportunities.
NCAAB Pick: Markquis Nowell Over 6.5 Assists (-130) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
Can TCU Perform Without Eddie Lampkin Jr.?
The TCU Horned Frogs will begin their Big 12 Tournament with a meeting against the Kansas State Wildcats. TCU has lost six of its last nine games. In those nine games was a loss to Kansas State, on the road, 82-61. The Horned Frogs defeated Kansas State on their home court with an 82-68 win.
This game can go either way at this point. The Horned Frogs have shot 29.6% from downtown, but don’t typically take threes at a high rate. They’ve also nailed 53% from inside the arc, and that’s more of where they’ll be taking their shots.
TCU has added 32.5% of offensive rebounds and should have second chances in this game. They should also get to the foul line at a high rate, with Kansas State fouling at a very high rate this season.
Still, Kansas State has held teams to 29.5% from deep and 49.2% from inside the arc. The Wildcats have also earned nearly 21% of steals. The defense is outstanding. But TCU, even without Lampkin, should have success offensively. Remember, TCU has already played multiple games without Lampkin earlier this season. The center is currently away from the team due to a personal matter.
Can Kansas State Hold Onto The Ball?
The Wildcats are nailing 34.5% from deep and 51.4% from inside the arc. They’ve also shot nearly 75% from the foul line and earned 31% of offensive rebounds. Kansas State gets to the foul line at a higher rate, but TCU usually limits fouls at a higher rate on the defensive end.
However, the Horned Frogs allow 30.6% of offensive rebounds. There’s room for Kansas State to add some second-chance points and more possessions.
The Horned Frogs can earn a high rate of turnovers, taking away 22% this season. TCU has also held teams to 31.1% from three and 48.7% from inside the arc. Both defenses are in the top-25 in KenPom this season and both offenses could be more spectacular.
What to Expect Tonight
But both are good enough. Kansas State has been the more consistent offense this year. They’ll take more threes and assist on more baskets.
The Horned Frogs rely on points inside, but without Lampkin, that will likely not help TCU’s situation. We’ll get a fast-paced game, but both teams are also outstanding in transition defensively and communicate well.
This game could go either way. That’s why I’ll be looking at player props over trying to predict this game.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
