NCAAB Pick: K.J. Adams Over 4.5 Rebounds (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The TCU Horned Frogs will look to beat the Kansas Jayhawks for the second time this season. On the road earlier this year, TCU dominated Kansas 83-60. Therefore, TCU is a two-point favorite. Will Kansas pull off an upset win over TCU? Here are the NCAAB odds breakdown and player props that correlate with tonight’s Big 12 matchup analysis.
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Kansas Jayhawks vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Monday, February 20, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena
Emanuel Miller (TCU)
- Emanuel Miller has averaged 6.1 rebounds per game this season.
- He ranks 440th in college basketball with a 17.5% defensive rebounding rate.
- Miller had eight rebounds vs. Kansas earlier this season in an 83-60 win over Kansas.
NCAAB Pick: Emanuel Miller Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120) at BetOnline
K.J. Adams (Kansas)
- K.J. Adams averages 4.3 rebounds per game this season.
- He ranks 175th in the nation for offensive rebounding with a 10.6% rate.
- TCU allows 30.5% of offensive rebounds this season, 270th in all college basketball.
- He added five rebounds vs. TCU in just 23 minutes in the first matchup and just played 34 minutes in the win over Baylor.
NCAAB Pick: K.J. Adams Over 4.5 Rebounds (-120) at BetOnline
Damion Baugh (TCU)
- Damion Baugh is averaging 5.9 assists per game this season.
- He had 11 dimes against Oklahoma State last time out. (This is big with Mike Miles on the floor.)
- Has had at least nine assists in each of his last three games.
- Baugh has an assist rate of 29.8 which is 75th in all of college basketball.
- He has four games with at least ten assists.
NCAAB Pick: Damion Baugh Over 5.5 Assists (-150) at BetOnline
Win No. 2 for TCU?
The Kansas Jayhawks are rolling. They did a complete 180 in Saturday’s game against Baylor and won its fourth game in a row with a massive second half. The Jayhawks are now 10-4 in conference play but won’t have it any easier against the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU has lost four of its last five games but guard Mike Miles returned to the lineup, and they rolled over Oklahoma State, 100-75. He had missed those previous games due to an injury.
The Horned Frogs have a top 50 offense this season. The squad has shot poorly from deep, hitting just 29.2% from downtown. However, inside the arc, they scored 54.4% while earning 32.4% of offensive rebounds.
TCU should be able to get to the foul line at a high rate. They only shoot 69.9% from the foul line, but that rate could rise slightly at home. The Jayhawks will have to be careful with turnovers. Kansas has earned 20.7% of turnovers this season. However, the Horned Frogs have Mike Miles back at guard and only turn the ball over 17.4% of the time in the first place.
Kansas has still held teams to 32.2% from deep and 46.7% from inside the arc. The Jayhawks aren’t perfect on the defensive glass and will likely give up some second chances in this game. The Jayhawks have also fouled at an above-average rate. Therefore, TCU should seriously get plenty of foul-shot attempts in this game.
TCU's Defense vs. Kansas' Offense
On the other hand, the Horned Frogs could be better on the defensive glass. They are giving up 30.5% of offensive rebounds. But the Horned Frogs are good everywhere else defensively. Opponents have shot 30.9% from deep and 48.5% from inside the arc against TCU. They have also limited teams to fewer foul shots and earned 22.7% of turnovers. Analytically, TCU’s defense is better than Kansas’. The Jayhawks’ offense is just far superior to TCU’s.
Kansas won’t win the free throw battle, but they are shooting 35.3% from deep and 53% from inside the arc. Like TCU, Kansas won’t attempt a crazy amount of threes. They’d rather score around the rim. Kansas also limited turnovers and is shooting 72.7% from the foul line. The Horned Frogs have seen over 10% of shots get blocked. Kansas will protect the paint and just play better defense around the rim.
Let’s add three NCAAB picks that correlate to the analysis.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
