NCAAB Pick: Armando Bacot Over 16.5 Points (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The North Carolina Tar Heels want to make the NCAA Tournament this season. Even on the road, a loss to Notre Dame would be unacceptable. Will Armando Bacot help push the Tar Heels over the Fighting Irish in tonight’s ACC matchup? Let’s analyze the college basketball odds.
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Wednesday, February 22, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Purcell Pavilion
Nate Laszewski (Notre Dame)
Over/Under Rebounds
- Nate Laszewski averages 7.1 rebounds per game this season.
- The Fighting Irish player has added eight rebounds in each of his last three games.
- He also had eight rebounds in 35 minutes against North Carolina in an earlier game this season.
- Laszewski has a 22.5% defensive rebounding percentage, the 113th-best in the nation.
NCAAB Pick: Nate Laszewski Over 6.5 Rebounds (-150) at BetOnline
Armando Bacot (North Carolina)
Over/Under Rebounds
- Armando Bacot averages 11.1 rebounds per game. That’s good for 6th in college basketball.
- He is coming off a 14-rebound game against North Carolina State.
- The Tar Heels player has reached at least 11 rebounds in three of his last four games.
- Bacot has a 15.2% offensive rebounding percentage and a 23.6% defensive rebound percentage. He ranks 18th and 78th, respectively, in those categories.
Over/Under Points
- Bacot has averaged 17.3 points per game this season.
- He has a 115.2 offensive rating, which is 320th in the country.
- Bacot has earned 27.6% of possessions used. That’s good for 143rd in the country.
- He added 21 points on 9-for-17 shooting against Notre Dame last time out.
- The UNC forward is also shooting 57.7% from the inside the arc this season and will take plenty of shots per game.
NCAAB Pick: Armando Bacot Over 10.5 Rebounds (-105) at BetOnline
NCAAB Pick: Armando Bacot Over 16.5 Points (-130) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
The North Carolina Tar Heels were expected to be one of the top teams in the nation this year. They were coming off a National Championship appearance, bringing back nearly the entire roster from last year. Instead, the Tar Heels have been what they are. They’ve gone 8-8 in conference play and are 16-11 throughout the season. The Tar Heels have lost five of their last six games, including two home losses.
UNC will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish tonight on the road, looking to get back to over .500 in ACC play. Notre Dame has been much worse, though. They’ve gone 2-14 in conference play and haven’t won a game since January. The Fighting Irish have stuck around in a couple of games, but it’s unlikely they will stick against the Tar Heels, even at home.
It Will Be a Low-Scoring Affair
Notre Dame isn’t a terrible offensive. They’ll limit turnovers to 13.4% and shoot 36.3% from deep and 51.4% from inside the arc. Even at the foul line, they've hit 76.2% of attempts. However, the Fighting Irish rarely get to the foul line and have earned just 20% of offensive rebounds this year. If Notre Dame struggles from the field, they’ll struggle to earn second chances or enough points to beat a team like North Carolina.
The Tar Heels have limited opponents to 23.7% of offensive rebounds and rarely foul. This is a poor matchup for Notre Dame’s offense. UNC has also limited teams to 33.6% from downtown and 48.7% from inside the arc. Both are above-average numbers on the defensive end.
On the other hand, Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t looked good. Opponents are nailing 34.7% from downtown and 53% from inside the arc against the Fighting Irish this year. They've been a bit unlucky, however, with teams hitting over 77% from the foul line against them this year.
The Fighting Irish don't foul at a high rate either and have limited teams to 25% offensive rebounds. Still, the Tar Heels will have more second chances and offensive rebounds in this game. Like Notre Dame, UNC will protect the ball. North Carolina doesn’t shoot it from deep very well but shoots 51.6% from inside the arc. They won’t take as many threes as Notre Dame, and closer shots should help their shooting percentage.
Neither team will allow a ton of second chances or foul shots. North Carolina is weak from downtown, and Notre Dame probably won’t get the best of looks from the field against them. For your NCAAB picks, expect this game to go under the total.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
