NCAAB Pick: Jermaine Couisnard Under 12.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Oregon Ducks will look to surprise the UCLA Bruins and earn a semifinal win over the best team in the Pac-12. Oregon has lost its first two meetings against UCLA. The third time could be a charm. Here are some NCAAB picks to consider for tonight’s matchup.
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Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins
Friday, March 10, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA)
- Jaime Jaquez has an offensive-rebounding rate of 9.4%, which is 382nd in college basketball.
- He’s also earned a 19.7% defensive rebounding rate, 248th in college basketball.
- He added nine rebounds against Colorado last night.
- Jaquez averages eight rebounds per game this season.
- He had 12 against Oregon in his last meeting against them while playing 39 minutes.
NCAAB Pick: Jaime Jaquez Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115) at BetOnline
Tyger Campbell (UCLA)
- Tyger Campbell had seven assists against Colorado in his previous game in the Pac-12 Tournament.
- Played 38 minutes in his last game against Oregon earlier this year.
- The plus NCAAB odds, knowing Campbell has reached at least four assists in each of his previous five games, are appealing.
- Campbell will need to get more players involved with Clark unable to perform.
- 136th in the nation in assist rate.
- 428th in turnover rate.
NCAAB Pick: Tyger Campbell Over 4.5 Assists (+120) at BetOnline
Jermaine Couisnard (TCU)
- Jermaine Couisnard averages 13.2 points per game this season.
- He shoots just 41% from the floor this year.
- Couisnard didn’t start playing for Oregon until January 5.
- He should get closer to 30 minutes of action. Not 40.
- UCLA is one of the best defenses in the nation, even with Clark not on the floor.
NCAAB Pick: Jermaine Couisnard Under 12.5 Points (-120) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
Will UCLA Survive Without Jaylen Clark?
Nobody wants to believe in UCLA anymore. Jaylen Clark is done for the year. He was the team’s best defender and one of the better scorers on the team. But I’m not ready to give up on UCLA. The Bruins added a double-digit victory against Colorado last night. It was closer than the score, but a win is a win.
The Bruins have only lost two games throughout Pac-12 play. They’re now 19-2 in conference play. UCLA already has two wins over Oregon this year.
The offense has hit nearly 35% from downtown and 50.8% from inside the arc. This is an experienced group that dominates the offensive glass and limits turnovers. The offense has hit over 72% from the foul line but doesn’t get there often enough.
On the other hand, Oregon only gives up 26.2% of offensive rebounds and limits foul shooting at a very high rate defensively. Opponents have still hit over 34% from downtown against the Ducks.
Oregon has allowed just 46.1% from the field inside the arc. The Ducks aren’t aggressive enough to earn a high rate of turnovers, but they could get some stops inside the arc. UCLA rarely takes three-pointers.
Can Oregon Pull Off a Huge Upset?
The Ducks won’t fold. This offense has only hit 32.3% from deep but has made 53.8% from inside the arc. Oregon has also hit 71% from the foul line and has earned close to 33% of offensive rebounds this season.
The Ducks usually get to the foul line more frequently than UCLA. That could also be the case tonight, with UCLA being the more aggressive defense. That aggressiveness has helped UCLA earn 24.1% of turnovers this season. The Bruins have held teams to 31.6% from long range and 47.3% from inside the arc. They’ve also watched teams shoot under 70% from the foul line this season.
The Bruins will win the turnover battle. But Oregon could end up with more foul shots and easier looks inside the arc. UCLA has been much more consistent in games this year. Oregon has the talent to compete against them in this game.
Don’t be surprised if Oregon ends up earning a win. It’s hard to beat a team three times. Although I should admit, some teams earned their third win against teams earlier in other tournaments.
Neither team allows a high rate of offensive rebounds, but both teams are aggressive at earning them. Oregon should succeed in the arc, but they’ll take more threes than UCLA, which would help their case.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
