NCAAB Pick: Kyle Filipowski Over 14.5 Points (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Duke Blue Devils are making a push in the ACC before tournament time. They’ve won four straight games and will look to make it five against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Duke has one more game on the schedule in the regular season, but this will be the final game for North Carolina State before the ACC Tournament. What can we expect in tonight’s matchup according to the NCAAB odds?
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North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils
Tuesday, February 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Cameron Indoor Stadium
Kyle Filipowski (Duke)
Over/Under Points
- Kyle Filipowski is averaging 14.9 points per game this season.
- He added just 14 points in 28 minutes against NC State earlier this year. (He usually gets more minutes!)
- He’s shooting 49.2% from inside the arc.
- North Carolina State allows 50.1% from inside the arc this season on the defensive end.
- Filipowski is used on nearly 30% of possessions for Duke this season, which is 77th in college basketball.
NCAAB Pick: Kyle Filipowski Over 14.5 Points (-135) at BetOnline
Over/Under Rebounds
- Filipowski earns nearly nine rebounds per game this season.
- The line is lower after three rebounds in 23 mins vs. Virginia Tech.
- Has 12 games with at least ten rebounds.
- If Filipowski stays out of foul trouble, he’ll get enough minutes to make a true impact for Duke.
- For your NCAAB picks, expect Duke to limit fouls, and that includes Filipowski.
NCAAB Pick: Kyle Filipowski Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110) at BetOnline
Jarkel Joiner (North Carolina State)
- Joiner averages 17 points this season.
- He’s shooting just 43.3% from the field this year.
- Joiner shot just 28.6% in North Carolina State’s loss against Clemson last time.
- Scoring should be limited. Joiner is also a premier passer and will look to get others involved.
- He won’t get to the foul line very much in tonight’s game.
NCAAB Pick: Jarkel Joiner Under 17.5 Points (-105) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
Can NC State Get Back to Winning?
At home, the NC State Wolfpack just took a brutal loss to Clemson, 96-71. Now they’ll head out on the road and take on a very talented Duke Blue Devils team. This will be North Carolina State’s final regular season game the year. In their first meeting at North Carolina State, the Wolfpack defeated the Blue Devils 84-60.
North Carolina State turns the ball over just 13.5% of the time. The offense has nailed over 35% from deep and 51.4% from inside the arc. Consistency has been an issue, but the offense has been outstanding overall. However, the Wolfpack won’t get to the foul line at a high rate and could be limited on the offensive glass. NC State adds 31% of offensive rebounds per game, but Duke only allows 25.9%.
The Blue Devils also hold opponents to 31.1% from deep and 46.8% from inside the arc. Duke has also watched teams hit 75.2% from the foul line this season. They’ve been a bit unlucky in that regard. Duke won’t force turnovers at a high rate but should be able to keep North Carolina State in check throughout the game at home.
Will Duke Push Win-Streak to 5?
Duke has won four straight games, including wins over Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, and Virginia Tech. None of these games are massive wins, but they’re wins in conference play.
Duke is hitting just 33.6% from downtown and under 51% from inside the arc. The offense rarely gets to the foul line but should get there more often against the Wolfpack, who fouls at a much higher rate.
The Blue Devils also add 37.1% of offensive rebounds. That’s ultimately where the Blue Devils have an advantage against most teams. The offense doesn’t shoot it lights out, but they can get a ton of offensive rebounds and second chances. NC State allowed 26.3% of offensive rebounds this season. Second chances will be harder to come by. However, teams still shooting 32.1% from deep and 50.1% from inside the arc against the Wolfpack.
The Blue Devils would rather score inside than shoot from outside. They’d benefit from looking to score around the rim, with NC State allowing teams to shoot above 50% inside the arc. I like Duke to escape in a close game against NC State. They haven’t played tough competition. Ultimately, the ACC isn’t very tough this year, to begin with. But they’ll be a hard out each time they play.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
