Texas vs. Iowa State NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis

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Timmy Allen #0, Christian Bishop #32 and Marcus Carr #2 of the Texas Longhorns. Chris Covatta/Getty Images/AFP

Can the Iowa State Cyclones hold off the Texas Longhorns, at home, in the Big 12 play? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!

Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, January 15, 2022 – 2:00 PM EST at James H. Hilton Coliseum

The Iowa State Cyclones started off the season red hot but have since cooled off, losing three of their last four games. Iowa State can no longer feast on non-conference opponents. Every single night in the Big 12, it’s going to be a real challenge and Iowa State is starting to struggle with that.

Despite the challenge of the Big 12, Iowa State lost to Kansas by just one point last time out, 62-61. That game was on the road. Iowa State has only lost one home game and it came against Baylor, in a five-point defeat.

Anyway, Iowa State’s defense is one of the best in the nation. The Cyclones are holding opponents to a 44.7 percent effective field goal percentage while also earning 26 percent of turnovers on the season.

Opponents have literally shot just 26.5 percent from long range and 47.7 percent from inside the arc this season against Iowa State. However, because Iowa State can be aggressive, the Cyclones will foul opponents and put them on the line at a higher rate than you’d like. That could come back to bite them in this game.

Texas is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.6 percent while limiting turnovers to 16.8 percent on the season. The Longhorns have hit 33 percent from three and 54.3 percent from inside the arc.

The Longhorns hit 77 percent from the foul line, which again, will matter, knowing that Iowa State sends opponents to the line at a high rate. Texas can also earn some second chance, grabbing offensive rebounds 32.9 percent of the time this season.

On the flip side, Texas is just as good defensively. The Longhorns hold opponents to a 44.6 percent effective field goal percentage while earning 26.7 percent turnovers. Teams have also shot just 30.5 percent from behind the arc and 44 percent from inside the arc this season against Texas.

Texas should be able to force turnovers with Iowa State turning the ball over 20.5 percent of the time on the offensive end. Plus, the Cyclones shoot at an above-average rate but aren’t nearly as effective as Texas. The Cyclones have hit 34.3 percent from three and 51 percent from inside the arc on the season.

Prediction

Neither team is going to put up a bunch of threes and both teams have plenty of experience on the floor. Texas should also be getting back Tre Mitchell for this game, who had been sidelined with COVID.

The center was a transfer from UMass and has averaged close to 10 points per game while also rebounding 4.5 misses shots a game. Despite Texas being on the road, for my NCAAB pick, I like Texas to come away with the victory against Iowa State in this one. Both teams have a terrific defense but only one team has a consistent offense. That’s Texas.

NCAAB Pick: Texas -3 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Texas -3 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.