Texas vs. TCU Picks & Prediction for March 1: Can Frogs Avenge Earlier Loss to Longhorns?

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Final Score: Texas 71 – TCU 70

NCAAB Pick: Texas ML (+125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Texas ML (+125)
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In like a lion and out like a lamb, that’s what they say about March. Maybe so, but college basketball begins March with a whale of a collision down in the Big 12 where Texas and TCU tangle on a Hump Day betting card.

Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Wednesday, March 01, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena

It would be easy to nitpick through each of the 10 losses TCU has suffered this season and come up with reasons why the Horned Frogs should have won, but none would be easier to find fault with than their setback to the Texas Longhorns.

Just how much revenge the Horned Frogs have on their minds when they host the Longhorns in a Wednesday night matchup remains to be seen, but you can bet head coach Jamie Dixon has gone over the film from that game for hours with his players to prepare for the rematch.

This will be the final home game of the season for TCU, and a chance for the Horned Frogs to stay ahead of Iowa State for fifth place in the Big 12. Texas, meanwhile, needs a win to stay within a game of Kansas heading into their big showdown this Saturday.

Rivalry Notes & Betting Trends

If it was me showing the film to the Horned Frogs, I’d forget the first 17 minutes and just start the projector near the end of the first half when TCU was up by 18 down in Austin on January 11th. With Texas giving up 6 at top sportsbooks, it appeared a big upset was in the making.

Nothing of the sort, as it turned out. Oh, the Horned Frogs did beat the spread, but they needed just about all of those 6 points to do it as Timmy Allen and Sir’Jabari Rice sparked the Longhorns’ comeback in a 79-75 final.

Texas had a much easier time of things the last time these two met in Ft. Worth about 13 months ago. Favored by a bucket or so, the Longhorns broke a 10-all tie early to race to a 20-point halftime lead and left town with a decisive 73-50 triumph.

  • Texas leads the series 116-69 and has won 8 of the last 9.
  • The Horned Frogs have covered the last 3 meetings, including a 65-60 outright victory in the quarterfinals of last year’s Big 12 Tournament.
  • ‘Over’ bettors have cashed 4 of the last 5, including the last 2 at Schollmaier Arena.

‘Horns Beaten SU & ATS Last 3 Roadies

That loss to TCU in the 2022 conference tourney was a contest the Longhorns led by 18 at the half, and they are coming off a very similar loss this past weekend in Waco where Texas led by 14 in the first half before falling apart in an 81-72 loss to the Bears.

The Longhorns were getting everywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 on BMR’s live odds board and were winning the turnover battle 8-3 at the time of the 14-point lead, only to get sloppy at that point in addition to losing the glass battle.

Texas did have five players score in double figures, led by Dylan Disu’s 24, but his big game and balanced scoring from the rest of the squad couldn’t make up for the turnovers.

Frogs 2-2 O/U Last 4 at Home

You can’t blame Dixon if he sensed another win slipping away last Saturday in Lubbock. Leading by a dozen with less than 8 minutes to go, the Horned Frogs were pushed to the limit by Texas Tech before holding on for an 83-82 victory.

BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) closed TCU as a 2-point underdog, and the Red Raiders actually outshot the Horned Frogs overall and from beyond the arc, plus outscored them 15-11 from the free throw line only to fall short.

Mike Miles Jr. scored 24 to lead TCU, and the Horned Frogs have won two of three since he returned from a hyperextended knee. The Big 12’s second-leading scorer (18.0 PPG), Miles has converted 5-of-10 from 3-point land since his return to open up the inside for TCU.

UT Bounces Back Into Win Column

Bettors who went shopping on the overnight college basketball odds were firmly behind TCU, sending the chalk on the Horned Frogs from -1 at the opener to -2.5 on the morning lines. The total remained fairly steady with most shops offering 149.5.

With my college basketball picks taking a downturn recently, feel free to fade this play, especially given how difficult it is to win on the road in the Big 12 or any other conference. Texas wins it outright.

For Longhorns fans looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Texas betting sites.

Final Score: Texas 71 – TCU 70

NCAAB Pick: Texas ML (+125) at Bovada

NCAAB Pick: Under 149.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Under 149.5 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.