Texas vs. Purdue NCAA Tournament Second Round Picks for Sunday

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Andrew Jones #1 of the Texas Longhorns. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images/AFP

The Texas Longhorns knocked off the one team everyone expected to reach the Sweet 16. That team was the Virginia Tech Hokies and Texas made light work of the ACC Champions.

Despite reaching the Round of 32, the Tournament won’t get any easier with Texas now facing the number three seed in the Purdue Boilermakers.

The Texas Longhorns are the more balanced team when they face Purdue on Sunday. Will this help Texas move onto the Sweet 16 over Purdue? Keep reading as we’ll break down the college basketball odds for this matchup.

Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Sunday, March 20, 2022 – 08:40 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum

Purdue has been one of the best offenses in the nation this season, shooting an effective field goal percentage of 56.8%. Turnovers are low at 17.2% and Purdue has no problem earning offensive rebounds, winning the battle 35.2% of the time.

The Boilermakers also get to the line at a rapid pace and should be able to get to the line effectively against Texas’ defense that fouls a lot. Purdue is shooting 38.9% from deep and 55.8% from inside the arc, however, just 70.8% from the line, which is a below-average number.

Again, Texas will foul at a higher rate than normal and isn’t dominant on the defensive glass. Those are two areas where Purdue can take advantage of Texas. However, Texas is also holding opponents to 31.8% from deep and 46.3% from inside. Opponents are also shooting just 67.8% from the foul line against Texas this season.

Plus, Texas is earning 23.2% turnovers this season and should be able to force Purdue into more mistakes in this college basketball game.

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On the defensive end, Purdue is only earning 14.2% turnovers. Clearly, Texas is going to win that battle when it comes to turnovers. However, Purdue is much better on the defensive glass, holding opponents to 23.7% offensive rebounds and rarely fouls on the defensive end.

It’s not an effort thing when it comes to Purdue but the defense just isn’t aggressive enough to where the Boilermakers will force turnovers and get fouls called on them.

Meanwhile, Texas is shooting 32.9% from deep and 50.6% from inside the arc. But from the foul line, the Longhorns have hit 75% of attempts. Even though Purdue is dominant on the defensive glass, there’s also still a chance Texas can earn some offensive rebounds, while averaging 31.9% offensive rebounds this season.

Prediction

If we’ve learned anything about the NCAA Tournament, it’s that these analytics and stats usually don’t add up in postseason play. After all, we’ve got St. Peter’s moving onto the Sweet 16 with a below-average offense in college basketball throughout the season.

Texas is still the more balanced team. Even though Texas might give up second-chance points and opportunities, they won’t be giving up transition buckets from mistakes and they will earn transition buckets on Purdue’s mistakes.

Attempts will be up with offensive rebounding but will also stay down when Texas forces many turnovers. So, I’ll take the Texas Longhorns with the points for my NCAAB pick.

NCAAB Pick: Texas +3.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Texas +3.5 (-110)
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NCAAB Prop Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 75.5 (-120) at The Best Online Sportsbooks

Purdue Team Total Under 75.5 (-120)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.