NCAAB Pick: Over 149.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
This is about as close as a game can get. Saturday’s Big 12 matchup between the No. 10 Texas Longhorns (18-4 SU, 9-13 ATS) and No. 7 Kansas State Wildcats (18-4 SU, 15-7 ATS) is a pick ‘em on the NCAAB odds as we go to press, although K-State can be had at +1 at some locations.
It’s been a tug-of-war amongst the sharps in these few hours since the college basketball lines first hit the board. The Wildcats briefly ticked up to -1 in early action at BetOnline before settling back down to PK, and now +1. And the total bounced from 150 to 147, then back up to 149.5.
Exciting, yes, but it’s causing us no shortage of headaches here at the ranch. We are going to recommend a standard single-unit wager on Over 147; now there’s only room left for a “recreational” bet at 149.5.
And I suppose we’ll throw K-State in there too as 1-point home dogs at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), although you might be able to grab those ‘Horns at +1.5 by the time you read this.
Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, February 04, 2023 – 04:00 PM EST at Bramlage Coliseum
Is Kansas State Overrated?
That’s what the advanced stats say. The Wildcats may be No. 7 on the AP poll (and sixth on the Coaches Poll), but they’re No. 24 in Division I according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts, with the nation’s No. 32-ranked offense and No. 28 defense.
Maybe that 15-7 ATS record – the most profitable in the Big 12 – is just smoke and mirrors. Pomeroy also has this metric called Luck rating, which uses Gaussian something-something to sort out which teams’ records deviate the most from their performance levels, and the ‘Cats are up there at No. 35.
K-State did have that big 83-82 overtime win against Kansas (-1.5 away) last month, though. And they hammered Texas 116-103 two weeks prior as 8.5-point road dogs. There’s talent there, no question, but the regression monsters are lurking around the corner; KU already got their revenge during Wednesday’s 90-78 win as 8.5-point home faves. Texas may be next.
Is Texas Underrated?
Nope, they are perfectly ranked at No. 10, at least as far as Pomeroy and his famous blue webpage are concerned. The Longhorns check in at No. 11 on offense, No. 30 on defense, and a somewhat fortunate No. 64 in Luck rating.
These numbers provide a snapshot in time, though. The Longhorns were No. 12 on the preseason poll and made it all the way to No. 2 before hitting a rough patch in December – more on that in a moment. The public at Texas betting sites abandoned them like proverbial rats from a proverbial ship, but they seem to be back on board now that Texas have won three of their last four SU and ATS.
Those Wildcats, though. They’re still hot at 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10, but they haven’t seen much action lately, at least according to some of the public money charts out there on the interwebs. Hmmm.
Is Rodney Terry the Right Coach for Texas?
Well, as they say, there’s Mr. Right and Mr. Now. Terry was thrust into the spotlight when head coach Chris Beard was arrested and fired over a domestic violence incident that’s way too tangled and nuanced to get into here. The Longhorns were 7-1 SU and 3-4 ATS under Beard; they are now 11-3 SU and 6-9 ATS under Terry. Which brings us to our collection of NCAAB picks.
Kansas State project to win Saturday’s game by around 76-75, which I believe adds up to 151 points, so Over 149.5 isn’t so bad – maybe they’ll go to overtime while they’re at it.
We’re also getting enough wiggle room with Kansas State +1 for a fun-size bet, made more fun by that -108 deal on juice at Heritage Sports. But if you really want to throw some money around, we’ll need to move in a different direction.
As it turns out, we’re not seeing anything on the NCAAB props board just yet, but the analytics for their previous matchup suggested taking Wildcats forward Keyontae Johnson Over 6.5 rebounds, and he got there with nine. Hopefully, that value will still be there for the rematch; bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas State +1 (-108) at Heritage Sports
NCAAB Prop Pick: Keyontae Johnson Over 8.5 Total Rebounds (-113) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
