Texas vs. Kansas Big 12 Tournament Final Picks & Predictions: This Should Be a Classic

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Joseph Yesufu #1 of the Kansas Jayhawks dunks the ball against Tyrese Hunter #4 and SirJabari Rice #10 of the Texas Longhorns. Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images/AFP.

NCAAB Top Pick for Today

Texas vs. Kansas: Kansas ML (-125) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Score Prediction: Kansas 74 – Texas 72

The best conference in college basketball has a spectacular championship battle with No. 2 seeded Texas versus No. 1 seed Kansas for the right to be crowned Big 12 champions. That really means something this year!

Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, March 11, 2023 – 06:00 PM EST at T-Mobile Center

Kansas Title Game Preview

With the Jayhawks having reached the Big 12 championship again after beating Iowa State 71-58 as 4.5-point favorites at Kansas betting sites, they have solidified their No. 1 seed in the tournament. Now it is just a matter of where they land 1 to 4.

At 27-6 and 16-17 ATS, the Jayhawks are hardly a dominant club, but what they are is a team that knows how to win. That comes from the teaching of coach Bill Self who understands how to develop teams and bring out their best.

Though the Big 12 was a brutal conference, almost every team played Kansas even for wide swaths of each game. The difference in why the Jayhawks are 15-5 SU in conference play is they had those 6-0 or 8-2 runs to build leads and seldom ever gave it all back, especially in the second half. With a working margin, Kansas more often than not would put the opponent away.

Texas Title Game Preview

The Longhorns (25-8, 16-17 ATS) dismantled Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tourney and won a 66-60 grinder over TCU last evening as a short favorite at Texas betting sites to reach this summit in the tourney.

Similar to Kansas, the Longhorns churn their way to victories. As we have talked about all season in the Big 12, it is about winning, and for those of us that are engaged with the point spreads, coming out 50-50 is a good outcome in this conference, much like the Texas record against the number.

There is nothing spectacular about the Horns, they just play, contest almost every shot on defense, and maneuver the ball which can lead to surprisingly open shots.

To win the Big 12 title, Texas has to defend with veracity, attack the rim with the ball to score within five feet of the basket, or use the kick-out pass for an open three-ball. 

Big 12 Championship Game Prediction

  • Kansas 12-3 and 11-4 ATS since 1997 in Big Championship
  • Texas is 4-12 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season

This is Kansas’s 16th appearance in the Big 12 title game since 1997 and they have been a handful to beat at 12-3 and 11-4 ATS.

The Jayhawks are streaking at 9-1 (7-3 ATS). Their only loss in this stretch was last Saturday at Austin 75-59 to the Longhorns, in which they suffered their second-worst shooting performance of the season at 36.2%. Texas has not been as proficient at 7-4 SU and ATS, but their setbacks have come on the nasty Big 12 road.

These basketball rivals split their two games with home teams winning and covering at home and the last time they met in this postseason tourney was 2019, with Kansas a 63-57 winner as three-point favorites.

There is almost nothing to separate these combatants other than the Jayhawks are on a 6-0 ATS run in this tournament. The system that Bill Self has put in place will carry them to beat the NCAAB odds of -1.5. And don’t get caught up backing Kansas on the point spread, take them on the moneyline.

How To Bet Total and First Half Line

We are going to suggest the total is actually the safer bet for college basketball picks, which is presently 141.5. The totals were evenly divided this season, however, four of the past six have gone Over. Plus, we have this.

  • Texas is 12-3 Over after two or more consecutive wins this season.
  • Texas is 26-13 Over in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5.

The first angle averages 147.2 points and the latter is at 153.2 points.

Kansas at times has gotten off to sluggish starts and played much better in the second half. Not Texas, they have been ready from the start and are 11-3 against the 1st half line in all neutral court games the past three seasons. Saddle up on the Horns in the first half. 

NCAAB Pick: Over 142 (-108) at Heritage Sports

NCAAB Pick: Texas First-Half +1 (-110) at Heritage Sports

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Texas First-Half +1 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.