Purdue vs. Maryland Top Picks & Props February 16: No. 3 Boilermakers On Upset Alert

profile image of Matthew.Jordan
Zach Edey #15 of Purdue takes a shot against Maryland on January 22, 2023. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

NCAAB Pick: Maryland +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Maryland +1.5 (-110)
Visit Site

No. 3 Purdue can take a huge step toward winning the Big Ten’s regular-season title if the Boilermakers win at dangerous Maryland on Thursday.

Which side of the 1.5-point spread has the best value for our NCAAB pick at the top-rated online books? We also have a play on the total. 

Remember, fans from the Free State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Maryland betting sites.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Maryland Terrapins 

Thursday, February 16, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at XFINITY Center 

The first ranked team in action around college basketball on Thursday is No. 3 Purdue as the Boilermakers visit unranked but very dangerous-at-home Maryland with the Big Ten Network having the telecast. 

Purdue eyes the regular-season sweep as it was a 9-point home favorite at the top-rated books on Jan. 22 and escaped with a 58-55 win.

Star Zach Edey finished with 24 points and 16 rebounds, and Braden Smith made two free throws with 3.9 seconds left to clinch it.

The Terps trailed by 14 at the half but tightened up defensively after the break and forced Purdue to commit eight second-half turnovers, going 0-for-6 on 3-pointers and shooting just 26.9% from the field. Julian Reese scored 19 points to lead Maryland. Jahmir Young had about a 30-footer at the buzzer to tie, but it never had a chance. 

Because Maryland is still fairly new to the Big Ten, it has only played Purdue 13 times.

The Boilers lead 8-5 but are 2-4 as the road team. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four. 

Purdue Unbeaten When Not No. 1 

Purdue (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten) fell from the top spot in the polls following a 64-58 loss at Northwestern on Sunday. No shame there as the Wildcats are a very good team this season, but the Boilers seemed to have the game in the bag up eight, 55-47, with about 3:40 left but would score just three points the rest of the way. It was Northwestern’s first-ever win in 19 tries vs. the nation’s No. 1 team. 

Boilers center Zach Edey, the massive (-2500) favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to win the Wooden Award as the nation’s top player, had 24 points, eight rebounds, and three blocked shots, but the 7-foot-4 center turned it over six times. The Boilermakers scored just 21 points in the second half and had 13 second-half turnovers. They had won 20 straight games when leading at halftime and 11 in a row overall against Northwestern. 

Edey needs 15 rebounds to move into the career Top 10 list (749) at Purdue. With 16 rebounds, he would become the second player in school history to have 1,250 points and 750 rebounds by the end of his junior season, joining 1980 No. 1 NBA Draft pick Joe Barry Carroll. 

Purdue Eyes Upcoming Tournament

A win over Maryland would give Purdue its 10th Quad 1 victory of the season and improve Purdue to 8-2 on the road, including 7-2 in Big Ten play. Purdue has won seven Big Ten road games just seven times in school history and not since 2018. 

Maybe being ranked No. 1 is the problem. The Boilers are 9-3 this year when they are and 14-0 when not. Free throws and turnovers often tell the story of Coach Matt Painter’s club. In the three losses, the Boilermakers shot just 48-of-69 (.696) from the free throw line with 45 turnovers. In its 23 wins, Purdue is shooting 76.1 percent from the charity stripe and averaging 10.6 turnovers per game. 

ESPN Bracketology currently has Purdue as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament’s Midwest Region and CBS Sports has it as a No. 1 in the South. Even with a loss here, it should win the Big Ten regular-season title with a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. It is (-3000) to win it at the top-rated books at our most up-to-date NCAAB odds.  

The Boilers are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five road games. 

Terps Don’t Lose At Home 

Sure, it’s nice being at home in the NBA but playing at home in college basketball is such a big advantage because we are talking about teenagers dealing with schoolwork, girls, etc. Not having to travel and spend long bus rides and nights in a hotel is a huge advantage. Just ask Maryland, which has the second-largest arena capacity in the Big Ten and the 16th-largest in the nation. Only Ohio State's Value City Arena holds more (18,809) in the league.  

The Terps are 13-1 at home this season (only loss on Dec. 14 to an excellent UCLA team) and have won a school-record 10 consecutive Big Ten games at home. Maryland is looking for its first win over an AP Top 5 team at home since defeating Iowa, 74-68, in 2015-16.

This is the 29th consecutive year Maryland has won at least 10 games at home, dating to the 1993-94 season.

Big Advantage in College Park Looms Large

At 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big Ten, Coach Kevin Willard’s team has no NCAA Tournament worries barring an utter collapse, and could get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. ESPN has Maryland as the No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and CBS Sports the same. 

The Turtles are off a 74-68 home win over Penn State on Saturday. Senior guard Hakim Hart tallied a season-high 23 points, his most in a Big Ten game career. Jahmir Young scored in double figures for the 11th game in a row with 18 points. He is averaging 19.6 points over his last 10 games with 5.4 rebounds per. 

UM held the Nittany Lions without a two-point field goal for the game's first 13 minutes and was scoreless for a span of more than five minutes in the second half to take control. Maryland is allowing just 58.3 points per game in its past eight and is 16-0 and has won 21 games in a row when leading at halftime. 

When Maryland wins overall, it is averaging 77.7 points while allowing just 59.7. It is also averaging 17.1 made free throws and holds a +4.6 advantage in rebounds.

Picks and Prediction

The Terps are 2-0 this season in rematch games after defeating Wisconsin and Michigan at home following losses on the road.

I believe that will be 3-0 after Thursday. They are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 at home. 

Score Prediction: Maryland 67 - Purdue 65 

NCAAB Pick: Maryland +1.5 (-110) at BetOnline

NCAAB Pick: Under 133.5 (-110) at BetOnline

BetOnline logo
Under 133.5 (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.