NCAAB Pick: Purdue -7.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Big Ten Championship will be the final game before the selection committee puts together the NCAA Bracket. Penn State and Purdue are already going to make the field, but a No. 1 seeding could be on the line for Purdue in tonight’s game.
Let’s find the best betting picks for this game, and if you’re located in Indiana, don’t forget to go over our Indiana betting guide before placing your wagers!
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Sunday, March 12, 2023 – 03:30 PM EST at United Center
The Penn State Nittany Lions have made it into the Big Ten Championship game after knocking off Indiana yesterday.
Penn State was on the brink of making the NCAA Tournament a couple of weeks ago. Now they’re a lock to be in the field and could ultimately earn an even higher ranking with an upset win in the Big Ten Championship.
Meanwhile, Purdue has had an “easy” road to the Final. The Boilermakers took on two lower-tier seeds and will now face Penn State, another lower seed, in the Big Ten Tournament.
If the Boilermakers finish off Penn State, they’ll be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Can Purdue finish the job?
Can Penn State Keep This Game Close?
The Penn State Nittany Lions lost to Purdue twice earlier this season. Penn State lost 76-63 in a semi-away game and took an 80-60 loss at home.
Purdue is the better team, but the Nittany Lions are just hitting on all cylinders right now. The Nittany Lions have nailed 38.7% from downtown and 53.5% from inside the arc this season. They won’t dominate the offensive glass or even get to the foul line at a high rate. Instead, they’ll limit turnovers and get good looks.
Getting to The Foul Line
Purdue has limited teams from the foul line better than any team in the country. So don’t expect the Nittany Lions to get to the foul line.
The Boilermakers will want to keep Penn State away from the foul line, too, knowing that Penn State has shot 73.1% from the charity stripe this year.
Meanwhile, Purdue has kept teams to 31.4% from long range and 47.2% from inside the arc. The defense is good, especially at limiting fouls and dominating the defensive glass. This is why Purdue defeated Penn State earlier in the season.
Purdue is good at things Penn State isn’t.
Purdue’s Offense Won’t Be Stopped
The Boilermakers have shot, so far this season:
- 33.1% from downtown
- 54.2% from inside the arc
Meanwhile, Purdue has, thanks to Zach Edey:
- Shot 74.6% from the foul line
- Added 38.5% of offensive rebounds per game
The Nittany Lions usually limit offensive rebounds, holding teams to 24.8%. However, keeping Edey and the other Boilermakers off the glass is tough throughout the game.
Purdue should win the rebounding battle in this game. The Boilermakers should also attempt more foul shots and will limit turnovers just as much as Penn State.
The Nittany Lions have only earned 13.2% of turnovers throughout the season. Purdue will be smart with the ball, and as long as the Boilermakers shoot the ball, good things will happen.
Either the ball will go in the net or the Boilermakers will get second chances and score closer to the rim.
The Final Verdict
Penn State and Purdue both move at a slow pace. Both teams use about 19 seconds per possession. But Purdue has more action offensively, despite Penn State having one of the best assist-guards in the country.
Penn State relies on the three-ball but won’t be able to earn second chances off their misses. The Nittany Lions have shot the three-ball at a very high percentage. But against Purdue, it’ll be more challenging, and they’ll still be forced to shoot from long-range, especially with Edey in the middle for Purdue.
Our Betting Picks
Therefore, I like Purdue to win the Big Ten Championship tonight. The Boilermakers have already dominated Penn State twice and continue to draw easy competition throughout the Big Ten Championship.
There’s no guarantee that Purdue goes far in the tournament. They’ve probably played well against an overrated Big Ten this year, but a win tonight is still a Big Ten Championship in the rafters. They’ll earn it.
Back Purdue -7.5 and the Under 135.5 at -110 betting odds. If Penn State shoots below average from downtown, it’ll be over for them quickly.
Score Prediction: Purdue 75 – Penn State 60
NCAAB Pick: Under 135.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.