NCAAB Pick: Under 151.5 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There’s a pretty big Total on the NCAAB odds board for Thursday’s Oregon-Arizona matchup. Is either side worth betting on?
Remember, fans from the Grand Canyon State who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Arizona betting sites.
Out of State? No problem. Check out the best US Betting Sites available in order to make secure wagers in your own home state.
Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats
Thursday, February 2, 2023 – 10:30 PM EST at McKale Center
Welcome back to the Conference of Champions.
At least that’s what Bill Walton likes to call it; the Pacific 12 and its predecessors (including the Pac-10 and Pac-8) have produced 15 champions in men’s basketball, tied with the ACC for the most ever, but zero titles since the Arizona Wildcats pulled it off in 1996-97. Harrumph.
Oregon won a championship, too – in 1938-39, the very first year of the Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, aka March Madness, aka the Big Dance.
The Ducks will probably have to wait a while longer to win their second; they’re 9-point road dogs for Thursday’s tilt with Arizona, according to the NCAAB odds board at BetOnline as we go to press.
Maybe the Oregonians are worth a slight lean at that price. We prefer Under 151.5 here at the ranch, although that’s still not promising enough to fire the standard single-unit wager at.
If we want something more than fun-size for our NCAAB picks, we’ll have to bring in a third option. Hmmm...
Will Arizona Be a 1-Seed Again?
Not this year, unless everything goes to heck for the teams above them in the pecking order. Arizona (19-3 SU, 9-12-1 ATS) have regressed ever so slightly in their second season under head coach Tommy Lloyd, falling from plus-22.75 to plus-19.38 on the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference.
This is still a quality program with a real shot at the title: Bovada Sportsbook has ‘Zona tied for sixth place on the March Madness futures market at (+1400).
But if things continue apace, they’ll have to get there as a 2-seed, as per Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology report at ESPN.
I personally wouldn’t bet the Wildcats at those odds. Last year’s team finished fifth overall on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts; this year’s squad checks in at No. 12 overall (No. 14 offense, No. 31 defense), after losing guard Bennedict Mathurin and center Christian Koloko to the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors respectively.
That’s not all they lost. Guard Dalen Terry was scooped up by the Chicago Bulls, and guard Justin Kier completed his eligibility, leaving the ‘Cats with holdover forward Azuolas Tubelis (plus-10.1 BPM at Sports Reference) and a lot of holes to fill this year.
They should be commended for even doing this well.
Will Oregon Make the Tournament?
If you mean the Big Dance, nope.
The Ducks (13-9 SU, 11-10-1 ATS) are maybe fifth in the Pac-12 pecking order, and Lunardi only has three teams making it in from this conference, UCLA and USC being the other two.
It’s a sad state of affairs in Eugene. They made the Elite Eight in 2016 and 2017, and the Sweet Sixteen in 2019 and 2021, all under head coach Dana Altman; this year, they’re headed straight for the NIT, and as you may know, that stands for Not In Tournament.
At least they’re a bit better than last year’s NIT squad.
After losing four players to the transfer window and guard Jacob Young to graduation, Altman has shuffled the deck and produced a plus-13.49 SRS, up from plus-10.05 in 2021-22. Maybe they’ll even get a 3-seed at the NIT this time instead of a 4-seed.
What Can I Bet On?
The Under looks like a reasonable choice with the total this high; the analytics we’re following has Arizona winning Thursday’s contest by something like 79-71 or 80-71.
It’s not the old-school 2-point gap we’re looking for between the projections and the actual NCAAB lines, but it’s something.
The analytics also show a sliver of hope for Oregon at +9, up from +8.5 earlier in the day.
But if you want to make a serious wager on this game, you’ll have to leave the single bets behind and go for something more exotic.
Player of the Year? Why not Tubelis?
That usually means hitting up those NCAAB player props.
Unfortunately, this is a late start out on the Left Coast, and we’re not seeing anything on the board at press time – not even overseas – so we’re going to cheat a little for our third pick and recommend something from the futures market: Azuolas Tubelis winning the John R. Wooden Award.
It’s a bit of a flier at (+5000) on the overseas market, but it’s worth firing up to a single unit.
Tubelis has been handed the keys in Tucson with the departures of all those other players; he was one of 20 players named to the Wooden Award late-season watch list, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Azuolas Tubelis to Win John R. Wooden Award (+5000) at BetOnline
NCAAB Pick: Oregon +9 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
