Northwestern vs. Purdue NCAA Basketball Preview and Best Bet

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Zach Edey #15 of Purdue goes for the block against Johnny Davis #1 of Wisconsin. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP

The Purdue Boilermakers were stunned in their most recent game against the Indiana Hoosiers, losing as the AP Ranked #4 team in the nation.

Can Purdue get back on track against Northwestern this afternoon? Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this Big Ten matchup.

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Sunday, January 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Mackey Arena

Betting Preview

The Northwestern Wildcats will take a trip to Indiana to take on the Purdue Boilermakers as heavy underdogs. The Wildcats stunned Michigan State last Saturday and will look to pull off another upset this Saturday.

Purdue, on the other hand, is coming off a loss to Indiana, on the road, and will want to get back on track at home today. Purdue is currently one of the best offenses in the nation.

Betting Analysis

The Boilermakers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 58.2 percent while turning the ball over just 16.9 percent of the time. Purdue can dominate the glass with ease, earning 36.9 percent of offensive rebounds.

You can also expect Purdue to get to the line at a high rate, especially knowing Northwestern has had trouble limiting fouls this season, to begin with. Purdue has shot 40 percent from three and 57 percent from inside the arc on the year.

Northwestern is allowing teams to shoot 35.1 percent from three this season but are getting stops inside the paint, allowing teams to shoot just 44.9 percent from inside the arc. The Wildcats have also done well on the boards, giving up just 24.1 percent offensive rebounds this season.

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However, Purdue is just as good on the defensive glass and doesn’t really allow opponents to get second chances either. Teams are earning just 22.5 percent of offensive rebounds against Purdue this season and ultimately, it’s hard to get to the line against Purdue. The Boilermakers will surely win the foul line battle but Purdue won’t win the turnover battle.

Northwestern has limited turnovers to 12.8 percent this season. If there’s one thing Purdue isn’t good at, it’s forcing turnovers on the defensive end. Still, Purdue has shut teams down to 32.8 percent from three and 47.6 percent from inside the arc on the season.

Northwestern has hit just under 35 percent from three and assisted on a lot of baskets. But inside, it’s going to be hard for Northwestern to score at a high rate. The Wildcats will assist on a lot of baskets and use plenty of bench minutes. However, Purdue does as well and the Boilermakers have the height advantage on top of that.

Betting Prediction

I know that Purdue is one of the best offenses in the nation, but Northwestern does deserve some respect for its defense this season.

The Wildcats have held opponents to just 68 points per game and continue to have success on the defensive glass. If Northwestern can get stops inside the arc and rebound off misses like they’ve done all season, I like this game to go under the total of 149.5.

At 150, you’re asking both teams to reach 75 points while both of these defenses have allowed about 68 points per game. So, for my NCAAB pick tonight, give me the under in today's game.

NCAAB Pick: Under 149.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit BetOnline Review)

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Under 149.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.