North Carolina vs. Indiana Best Bets for Wednesday: Can Tar Heels End Two-Game Losing Streak?

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Leaky Black #1 of the North Carolina Tar Heels looks on during the Portland Pilots. Soobum Im/Getty Images/AFP.

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge will continue on Tuesday, with North Carolina taking on Indiana in a top-25 ranked matchup. How will tonight’s game play out?

Let’s see what the NCAAB odds tell us at the best sportsbooks!

Bettors looking to wager on Tar Heel State can find reputable North Carolina betting sites to do so using Bookmakers Review.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Wednesday, November 30, 2022 – 09:15 PM EST at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall

The North Carolina Tar Heels started the season as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation. With 2 losses, the Tar Heels are now 5-2 on the season and will take on the Indiana Hoosiers on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Indiana is currently undefeated, but its only major win is Xavier. The rest of their wins were practically givens.

Meanwhile, North Carolina lost to Iowa State, 70-65, and lost to Alabama in four overtime, 103-101. The Tar Heels were at least competitive in those games. We also know what they’re capable of as a team after they went to the National Championship last season.

Can North Carolina prove they belong in the Top 25 with a win against Indiana? Here are our NCAAB picks and prediction for tonight’s college basketball matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Indiana Hoosiers.

Three-Point Shooting Has Been a Problem for UNC

North Carolina hasn’t looked all that bad this season. However, three-point shooting on both sides of the ball has been a significant issue.

The Tar Heels have shot just 30.8% from downtown and have allowed opponents to shoot 35.6% from downtown. They aren’t taking a ton of three-pointers, but the reality is, when they’re taking long-distance shots, they’re not falling.

The good news for North Carolina is that Indiana rarely shoots threes. They’re one of the bottom teams regarding the three-point-attempts to field-goal attempts ratio.

The defense still holds opponents to a 48% effective field goal percentage. UNC has also held opponents to 28.9% offensive rebounds and is top 50 in free throws attempts to field goal attempts defensively. Inside, the Tar Heels have held opponents to 44.7%, also in the top 55 of college basketball.

On offense, again, the Tar Heels are poor from downtown. But they’re still limiting turnovers at a high rate and earning over 30% of offensive rebounds while shooting close to 55% from inside the arc. North Carolina likely gets to the foul line more, but Indiana will probably be more effective shooting the basketball.

Can Indiana Stay Efficient On Offense?

Right now, Indiana is playing like a National Championship contender. But we can’t get ahead of ourselves. They’ve only had one real win against a formidable opponent in Xavier.

The Hoosiers are still shooting an effective field goal percentage of 61.6%, which is second in the nation. The offense should be able to keep possession of the ball and limit turnovers.

Indiana has also dominated inside, scoring 63.3% of baskets inside the arc. And although Indiana isn’t shooting a heavy amount of threes, they’re still hitting them 38.3% of the time.

On defense, the Hoosiers have an adjusted efficiency of 89.1. That’s the 12th best in the nation. But that number figures to get lower after they face North Carolina. The reality is Indiana hasn’t faced fierce competition like North Carolina has.

North Carolina vs. Indiana: Game Prediction

Caleb Love has led the Tar Heels with 20 points per game despite shooting 41.8% from the field. Meanwhile, Trayce Jackson-Davis of Indiana has scored 18.8 points per game while shooting 76% from the field.

But overall, the Tar Heels are still 11th in the nation in adjusted efficiency offensively. The Tar Heels have an experienced group of guys who have played with each other dating back to last season. Only Pete Nance is an actual piece that wasn’t there last year, along with the first-year students.

The Tar Heels are 14th in college basketball in experience. However, Indiana is also 71st, with guys like Jackson-Davis, Race Thompson, Xavier Johnson, and Miller Kopp returning.

This should be an exciting game in the low post. We won’t see a tremendous amount of threes. North Carolina can’t even hit them at a high rate right now. Yet, the total is sitting at 148.5 because North Carolina had a four-overtime game against Alabama.

Final Picks

Indiana has held opponents to under 60 points this season. They just squeaked by Xavier, winning 81-79. That game had 160 points. But Xavier’s defense only ranks 80th this season. North Carolina’s defense is going to be much better.

Therefore, I’ll take the Under at 148.5. Fewer threes, limited free throws, and veteran play should help us stay Under.

If you’re looking for a side, I will roll with Indiana. The stats favor Indiana. But we’re still too early into the season. Indiana hasn’t played nearly as hard of competition compared to North Carolina. That could sway the stats a bit.

Score Prediction: Indiana 76 - North Carolina 68

NCAAB Pick: Indiana -5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Indiana -5 (-110)
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NCAAB Pick: Under 148.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 148.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.