North Carolina vs. Florida State Betting Preview for Monday: Seminoles in Spoiler Role Against Tar Heels

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Chandler Jackson and Cam Corhen of the Florida State Seminoles celebrate against the Miami Hurricanes on February 25, 2023. Megan Briggs/Getty Images/AFP

NCAAB Pick: Florida St. +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Florida St. +7 (-108)
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Picks Summary:

  • Florida St. +7 (-108)
  • Under 151½ (-104)

One team is on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament and the other is left to play the proverbial role of spoiler, and that leaves us looking for winning NCAA basketball picks for the battle between North Carolina and Florida State

Remember, fans from the Sunshine State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Florida betting sites.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles 

Monday, February 27, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Donald L. Tucker Center 

There’s no need to tell Leonard Hamilton and Florida State that they’ll be watching March Madness on the boob tube like millions of others next month. The Seminoles are well aware they fell short of their original plans for the 2022-23 season. 

Not that they were huge favorites on the NCAA basketball futures back in November, to begin with, but they can sure spoil it for a team that was; that being the North Carolina Tar Heels who travel to Tallahassee on Monday night. 

Most of the country can catch this prime-time contest on their own boob tubes, and coming off an incredible win Saturday should have the Seminoles in a great mood to take the floor in front of the home fans opposite a Tar Heels team that was a huge favorite in November and currently under pressure to win or maybe miss the Big Dance

Spread & Total Drop Overnight 

Most reputable books sent North Carolina out as 8-point chalk, but overnight action moved the line to -7.

There was an accompanying decrease on the total that started at 153 and is showing up at 151-151½ on the morning line. 

Heels Fail to Cover Last 5 ACC Roadies 

Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels felt the must-win pressure last weekend, and they responded in a positive fashion with a 71-63 win at home over the Virginia Cavaliers. North Carolina was favored by 4 at BetOnline. 

With the exception of the turnover column, North Carolina excelled in just about every statistical category as it built a 16-point lead at halftime before withstanding all challenges the Cavaliers made in the final 20 minutes

Pete Nance led the way with 22 points, and his perfect 4-for-4 shooting from 3-point range was a key factor in the contest that also saw R.J. Davis contribute a double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds). The Tar Heels also outscored Virginia 17-5 at the free-throw line. 

Will Upset of ‘Canes Fuel ‘Noles? 

Mired in a 4-game losing streak and trailing by 25 points in the second half on the road at rival Miami to a Hurricanes team that was a perfect 15-0 at home, it would have been easy for the Seminoles to curl up into a fetal position and cry for mercy. 

But one spark led to another and to another, and before you knew it, Florida State’s Matthew Cleveland was throwing up a 25-footer at the buzzer to give the Seminoles an 85-84 win as double-digit underdogs on the NCAAB odds

Florida State trailed for the first 34 minutes of the game before taking its first lead with 6:01 left, and a lot of things had to go just right for the Seminoles to get back in it, including what Miami coach Jim Larrañaga said about his team’s second half play: “Our battery died.” 

Rivalry History & Betting Trends 

This is the second consecutive season that the Tar Heels and Seminoles were only scheduled once on the ACC calendar, and it will be Florida State looking for some payback after being soundly whipped in Chapel Hill about 54 weeks ago

North Carolina more than doubled up the 9½-point spread at the best sportsbooks in the 94-74 final, leading from the tip to the final horn while keeping the Seminoles off the scoreboard for nearly the first 7 minutes of that game. 

They last tangled in Tallahassee more than two years ago, and Florida State won the game on the floor and at the betting window with an 82-75 final as 4-point home chalk. 

  • With the win at the Dean Smith Center last year, the Tar Heels extended their lead in the rivalry to 52-16. 
  • The Seminoles have won 4 of the last 7, including the last 2 meetings at Tucker Center. 
  • Chalk has prevailed in 7 of the last 9 and ‘under’ wagers have cashed 5 of the last 7. 

FSU in Classic Letdown Spot 

Part of me wonders if the Seminoles might still be thinking back with great fondness on their win Saturday, and a little less inclined to get pumped up for this game despite it being the mighty Tar Heels who are invading Tallahassee. 

But another part stares at that 1-8 ATS record North Carolina owns on the ACC highway and says grab the points and lean a little to the ‘under.’ 

NCAAB Pick: Florida St. +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports

NCAAB Pick: Under 151½ (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Under 151½ (-104)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.