New Mexico State vs. New Mexico NCAA Basketball Picks for December 6

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After the New Mexico Lobos took care of business on the road against the New Mexico State Aggies last week, can the Lobos finish the two-game sweep tonight at home? Let’s get into the college basketball odds for this match.

New Mexico State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos

Monday, December 06, 2021 – 09:00 PM EST at Dreamstyle Arena (The Pit)

The New Mexico State Aggies will take on the New Mexico Lobos for the second time this season. The Lobos defeated the Aggies on the road in the first meeting back on November 30, 101-94.

In that game, Jaelen House of New Mexico scored 31 points on 6-of-13 from inside the arc and 3-of-6 from outside the arc. He also got to the line 11 times and hit 10 foul shots.

New Mexico has a knack for getting to the line and capitalized at the foul line after taking 42 attempts against New Mexico State.

Still, the Aggies had 35 opportunities at the line, so fouls were easy to come by in that game. The same should happen in this one. Usually New Mexico Lobos game will have many fouls on both sides.

On the flip side, Teddy Allen scored 31 points for the Aggies after hitting 5-of-7 from inside the arc and 3-of-9 from outside the arc. Allen knocked in all 12 free throw attempts.

Those two will more than likely go at it again tonight.

New Mexico State won’t force many turnovers and has only forced 13.1 percent of turnovers per game this season. The Aggies are also allowing 33.5 percent from downtown and 47.5 percent from inside the arc.

Meanwhile, New Mexico is shooting 38.1 percent from downtown while hitting 77.1 percent of foul shots on the year. The lack of turnovers is crucial, especially because New Mexico has struggled to earn a solid amount of rebounds per game.

On the offensive glass, the Lobos are earning just 25.3 percent offensive rebounds and have been terrible on the defensive glass, allowing teams to get 37 percent of offensive rebounds. They’ll be outrebounded, but the Lobos should still finish the game with more free throw attempts, more field goal attempts, and more turnovers.

So while the New Mexico State Aggies will dominate on the offensive glass for second-chance opportunities, the New Mexico Lobos will be able to earn more turnovers.

Prediction

The second chance opportunities to the Aggies and the potential turnovers earned by New Mexico counteract each other.

Meanwhile, the Lobos won’t shoot at a higher percentage but will have more opportunities to get to the line and earn points with the clock stopped.

At home, getting four points, I like New Mexico to sweep New Mexico State in a two-game series.

The over is also enticing for our NCAAB picks but with the number above 150 range, it’s hard to take it, even if there were nearly 200 points last game. So we’ll stick with New Mexico at +4 as the home team at one of BMR's best sportsbooks?

*This is a sprinkle play for me and not an official play as stated in the NCAAB with Jason Radowitz video for Monday, December 6. *

NCAAB Pick: New Mexico +4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.