NCAA Basketball Picks for December 10: Best Bets Today

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Michael Almonacy #5 of Appalachian State drives to the basket against Joe Bryant Jr. #4 of Norfolk State. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP

In a game between two teams with completely different styles, what can you expect when Furman and Appalachian State clash tonight?

Let’s break down the NCAAB odds for this matchup!

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Furman Paladins

Friday, December 10, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Timmons Arena

Expert Preview

The Appalachian State Mountaineers will take on the Furman Paladins, on the road at 7:00 PM EST. It's been a while since the Mountaineers have played a road game and I think the defense wears down a bit against Furman's tonight.

Appalachian State has dominated the defensive glass this season, allowing just 20.3 percent of offensive rebounds. Meanwhile, Furman is averaging 85.1 points per game while only bringing down 26.9% offensive rebounds anyway. The Paladins shoot an effective field goal percentage of 54.1 percent on the year, which is the top 50 in the nation. They're shooting 38.2 percent from downtown and 51.5 percent from inside the arc.

Despite Appalachian State holding opponents to 29.3 percent, Furman should have no problem finding open looks, like they have all season long. Furman is scoring 40.3 percent of points from deep this season. Meanwhile, inside, Appalachian State has struggled. Teams are shooting 58.4 percent inside against the Mountaineers.

Furman will prepare for that knowing they can have success inside as well. Crucial ball movement and really good basketball should be showcased by Furman in this game on the offensive end.

On the other hand, Furman hasn't played great defense and has allowed teams to score 77.1 points per game. Teams have an effective field goal percentage of 53.1 percent against the Paladins and Furman really isn't a threat to force turnovers, like Appalachian State.

Expert Prediction

With fewer turnovers on both sides, there are more opportunities for points. Sure, some fastbreak points would be nice, but overall, the more shots attempted, the better chance of winning an over bet.

Opponents are shooting 35.8 percent from downtown and 52.7 percent from inside the arc. Furman doesn't foul all too often and Appalachian State isn't all that effective on the offensive end, but even without many second-chance opportunities for both teams, a number at 137 seems straight-up low for a Furman game.

On December 7, Furman dropped an 85-80 battle against Winthrop for a total of 165 points. They defeated Charleston 91-88 in overtime but clearly would've covered a 137 number in regulation. Even a team like USC Upstate found a way to score 77 against Furman earlier this year.

If Furman gets out to an early lead, Appalachian State is going to have to move a bit quicker. They're not the fastest offense by any means. They're taking over 20 seconds per possession, but as long as the Mountaineers don't turn the ball over and take shots within 20 seconds, that's going to work out fine.

Currently, I’m unsure of the status of James Lewis Jr. who is a senior forward averaging five points and 5.1 rebounds per game. He hasn't played in the last two games, but ultimately only played under 18 minutes per game.

Furman has three players averaging at least 16 points per game. There's Alex Hunter averaging 18.3 points, Jalen Slawson averaging 16.9 points, and Mike Bothwell averaging 16.4 points per game. Those three guys play over 30 minutes a game along with Conley Garrison, who is averaging 9.7 points at the guard position.

Expert Pick

With that said, I’ll be looking at the over 137 in this game. If Furman only scores 75 points, we'd need 63 points from Appalachian State to cover this number. Furman is currently averaging 85.1 points per game while Appalachian State is still averaging 70.3 points per game, despite being a slow, half-court offense.

With totals, I really have no clue about line movement. This is the first total I've played all year. I have no idea if it'll go up or down. But what I do know is that there is legitimate value on 137 for my NCAA pick tonight. I think we see 150 or more points in this game.

NCAAB Pick: Over 137 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Over 137 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.