Miami vs. Indiana 2023 March Madness Second Round Picks and Prediction: Will Hoosiers Secure a Sweet 16 Bid?

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Miller Kopp #12 of the Indiana Hoosiers reacts after a basket against the Kent State Golden Flashes on March 17, 2023. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP.

Score Prediction: Indiana 80 – Miami 75

NCAAB Pick: Indiana -2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Indiana -2 (-110)
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The Indiana Hoosiers will take on the Miami Hurricanes in the Second Round of the Midwest Region. The Hoosiers have played much better defense than Miami this season. Will that be the case in tonight’s Round of 32 matchups?

Let’s see what the NCAAB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!

Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Sunday, March 19, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at MVP Arena

The Indiana Hoosiers will look to take down the Miami Hurricanes in the second round of the Midwest Region. Indiana earned a 71-60 win against Kent State, while Miami added a sneaky 63-56 win over Drake.

Many analysts picked both teams to be upset in the Round of 64, but both high-major teams prevailed against outstanding mid-major teams. However, now, only one of these two teams can make it into the Sweet 16. Indiana has struggled to win back-to-back games, while Miami went on a significant run to start February, winning ten of their last 12 games.

Does that mean Miami has the edge? Here are our NCAAB picks and predictions for Sunday’s college basketball matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes.

Will Indiana’s Defense Be the Difference?

The Indiana Hoosiers have held teams to a 46.9% effective field goal percentage this season. Teams are shooting 33.2% from deep and 45.1% from inside the arc against Indiana this year. It’s hard to score on the Hoosiers.

However, Miami’s offense is capable of putting up big numbers. The offense has shot 36.7% from three and 54.1% from inside the arc. The Hurricanes have even hit 77.7% from the foul line this season. Miami doesn’t get to the foul line at a very high rate, but the Hurricanes make it count when they actually get to the line.

The Hurricanes have also earned 31.6% offensive rebounds. They’ll earn a bunch against an Indiana team with limited teams to 28.3% of offensive rebounds. Miami will get some second chances and some great looks, but Indiana’s defense will still perform better than Miami’s.

Miami Will Be Dominated Down Low

The Hoosiers have scored 37% from three and 53.1% from inside the arc. Inside is where Indiana is going to work. The Hoosiers typically don’t take a ton of threes in any game. They’d rather score around the rim.

Miami has allowed teams to shoot 51.8% from inside the arc this season. The Hoosiers should have success around the rim against a Miami team that isn’t great at defending two-point shots.

The Hoosiers have also limited turnovers to 16.8% and have added over 28% of offensive rebounds. Indiana will be active on the glass, especially with Miami allowing 28.3% of offensive rebounds. Nevertheless, Indiana probably won’t get to the foul line at a high rate, with Miami limiting fouls at a meager rate throughout the season.

Game Prediction

In conclusion, the Miami Hurricanes will limit turnovers and succeed on the offensive glass. Indiana’s defense is much better than Miami’s. Therefore, the Hurricanes will need to hit more challenging shots to stick around in this game. The Hurricanes have a bunch of quality scorers who can do that, but if you’re betting on Miami, you’re betting on chance.

Meanwhile, Indiana should dominate down low against a Miami team that hasn’t looked all that great defending inside the arc this season. The Hoosiers will also limit turnovers and still shoot threes at a higher percentage than Miami, despite not taking many of them.

Miami will shoot more from outside. That’ll be better for them because Indiana has defended the paint well this year. The Hoosiers have blocked 13.6% of shots this season, 12th in the nation.

Miami certainly has the edge if this game becomes a free-throw shooting contest toward the end, but I don’t think it comes down to that. The Hoosiers have been the much better defense this season and have enough offense behind Trayce Jackson-Davis to score at a high pace against a Miami defense that isn’t that great.

Therefore, I’ll back Indiana at -2 in this game. Indiana’s defense will surprise against a terrific Miami offense. I’ll also take the Over 145.5. I like Indiana’s shot-making ability from anywhere on the field. They’ll be aggressive on the glass, just like Miami will. So we’ll get plenty of second chances, and Miami will likely hit some circus shots and other contested shots to at least stick around against Indiana.

The Picks

This is going to be a great game. But again, take Indiana at -2 and the Over at 145.5.

For Hoosiers fans looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Indiana betting sites.

Score Prediction: Indiana 80 – Miami 75

NCAAB Pick: Indiana -2 (-110) at BetOnline

NCAAB Pick: Over 145.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Over 145.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.