Top NCAAB Pick for Today
NCAAB Pick: Maryland +8 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
- Maryland +8 (-110)
- Maryland vs. Alabama – Over 144 (-105)
Score Prediction: Alabama 76 – Maryland 69
The Maryland Terrapins will have ample ATS value for Saturday’s college basketball picks when they face the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Remember, fans from the Cotton State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Alabama betting sites.
Maryland Terrapins vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, March 18, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Legacy Arena at BJCC
Are you not entertained? It took about zero seconds for March Madness to descend into chaos; Thursday’s early First Round action saw No. 13 Furman (+5.5) sneak past No. 4 Virginia 68-67, then No. 15 Princeton (+14.5) eliminated No. 2 Arizona 59-55. Madness!
Joining the underdog parade: the No. 9 Maryland Terrapins, who beat No. 8 West Virginia 67-65 as 2.5-point puppies. Okay, nothing terribly exciting about a 9-seed beating an 8-seed, but what if they do the same to the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide this Saturday – in Birmingham, no less?
It could happen. The Tide didn’t have much trouble beating No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 96-75 in the First Round, but they also failed to cover the 24.5-point spread. Now they’re 8.5-point favorites on the early overseas NCAAB odds board for Saturday’s matchup as we go to press.
As you can tell by our score prediction, that’s 1.5 points too many – not quite enough of a gap for the standard single-unit wager, but there’s no question Maryland’s the sharp side here. It all boils down to… moral Terpitude.
Is Maryland a State?
I’m going to keep riding this “auto-complete” gimmick; the edutainment value is off the charts. Maryland is the seventh State of the Union and the No. 21 team (No. 32 offense, No. 33 defense) on Ken Pomeroy’s Division I efficiency charts.
Maryland (22-12 SU and ATS) also happens to be one of the more overlooked teams in the Big Ten, which makes sense, given that people aren’t even sure if it’s a state. They had a few decent runs under head coach Mark Turgeon, but Kevin Willard already has the Terps playing at roughly the same level in his first year on the job.
That’s because most of Turgeon’s players from last year decided to stick around. Hakim Hart (plus-7.4 BPM), Julian Reese (plus-6.0 BPM), and Donta Scott (plus-4.7 BPM) are all in the starting lineup instead of plying their trade elsewhere, which explains how Willard is enjoying all this success in year one of his reign.
Is Alabama a Red State?
Nope – the Crimson Tide (30-5 SU, 19-15-1 ATS) are in the black this year. They won the SEC title and were handed the No. 1 overall seed for March Madness – but Pomeroy has the Tide at No. 2 overall (No. 18 offense, No. 3 defense) behind Houston.
By the way, it’s interesting how Alabama was the clear No. 1 choice for AP writers, but Houston earned far more votes on the last Coaches Poll. Casual fans are more likely paying attention to the former; I might be more inclined to follow the latter, although KenPom is really where it’s at.
How Can Maryland Beat Alabama?
By slowing things down. The Terrapins rank No. 322 in the nation in Adjusted Tempo at 64.4 possessions per game; this team will grind it out on offense, then they’ll work extremely hard on defense.
We’re still taking the over for our second pick, though. The Tide rolls in very quickly indeed at 72.7 possessions per game (No. 5), and the above projection has these two teams combining to score 145 points, which is just a hair above the early overseas total of 144.
Size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NCAAB Pick: Over 144 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.