LSU vs. Auburn NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis and Free Pick

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Devan Cambridge #35 of the Auburn Tigers. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

“It will be as good as it gets all year long.” And with that promise from Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl, we dive into the matchup between his Tigers and the Tigers of LSU in search of a winning NCAA basketball pick.

LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers

Wednesday, December 29, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST Auburn Arena 

Considering how college hoops games are dropping faster than fly balls in dads pitch youth baseball leagues, a top 25 matchup could really be the best there is as Bruce Pearl promises for Wednesday’s clash at Auburn with the LSU Tigers in town. That it’s a pair of ranked SEC teams that don’t involve either Kentucky or Alabama is a story in itself, and a testament to just how deep the conference is this year.

Both teams will have the chance to tip their Southeastern Conference schedules with a win and pick up their first dubya against a ranked foe. That would help one group of Tigers or the other put some early pressure on the teams picked to finish above them before the season began. Those early NCAA futures odds had Auburn as the fourth pick in the SEC while LSU trailed in the No. 6 slot. 

‘Under’ Has Been a Money Maker in LSU Games 

It should make for good television with ESPN2’s cameras set up to broadcast the prime-time matchup. Online betting sites see it as a two-possession game with Auburn favored by 4 on its home floor. Bettors who are interested in playing the scoreboard have options in the 140-140½ range. 

One of five remaining unbeaten teams in the country, Will Wade can’t be anything but pleased with the start of his LSU cagers have gotten off to. Granted, it hasn’t come against a daunting schedule with the 30-point romp past Belmont the only matchup worth mentioning. Wednesday’s clash with Auburn will be the first step in deciding if LSU is a true contender or just a pretender. 

Anyone following the Tigers so far is also plenty pleased with the results. Bettors have returned to the pay window ten times in the dozen games and the tough defense Wade’s group is playing has also been a factor in ten if the Tigers’ tilts stay ‘under’ the totals. 

Louisiana State has only allowed four opponents to reach the 60-point plateau, and none to score more than 63 in a game. The Tigers are second in the country allowing 54.1 PPG, and tops in the nation letting their foes connect on just 33.8% of field goal attempts. 

Auburn 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS at Home 

Pearl’s team ain’t no slouch on defense either; Auburn is giving up just over 64 points a night, good enough for 75th in the country, and limiting the opposition to just a 38.7% success rate from the field, which puts the Tigers in the top 25. The Tigers are also top 25 in forcing 16.6 turnovers per game

Auburn actually had to overcome its own turnover problem the last time out, a 71-58 win a week ago over Murray State that just covered a 12½-point spread with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Pearl took his foot off the pedal plate to make the game look closer than it really was, and the Tigers were able to make up for 18 turnovers by dominating the glass, something they’ve been doing regularly. 

The close cover against the Racers helped to make up for a couple of close spread defeats in the previous two games. The final stopped comfortably short of a 147½-point total, the third consecutive ‘under’ for Auburn following 4-straight finals breaching the marks. 

Last Five Meetings Have Gone ‘Over’ 

Auburn and LSU only met once a year ago, and that game took place in Baton Rouge where Bayou Bengal sharpshooters picked off Auburn, 104-80. It was an easy cover for LSU backers who were laying 4½ on the college basketball odds and made possible by the team shooting 53% (29-73) from the field and an even 50% (11-22) from 3-point range. 

The win last season pushed LSU out in front with an 87-70 advantage in the rivalry. The final easily skipped past the total, marking the fifth consecutive ‘over’ in the rivalry. Auburn has won the last three played on its home court. 

This really should be a fun game to watch unfold, with some heavyweight battles going on down in the paint and great matchups out on the perimeter as well. It all could be determined early by how physical the referees allow the two Tigers to play. I like Auburn’s Jabari Smith to be the deciding factor and will lay the points on the home side. 

NCAAB Pick: Auburn -4 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Auburn -4 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.