NCAAB Pick: Louisville +18.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
A matchup between Louisville and Duke this late in the season used to draw a lot of interest from college basketball bettors and fans alike, but with both sides struggling, their Monday meeting is barely causing a stir.
Remember, fans from the Bluegrass State who want to wager on this game should check out our top-rated Kentucky betting sites.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils
Monday, February 20, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Cameron Indoor Stadium
Some will say it’s karma from Rick Pitino’s reign in Louisville. Others will tell you it’s a carryover from the messy scandal during Chris Mack’s time, but no matter what the cause, the Cardinals’ program has reached an unprecedented low point this season.
They’re bad, really bad, some would say the worst of the worst, and it’s even tough to get excited about what used to be a hot ticket on the ACC schedule when the Cardinals visit Duke on Monday for a matchup with the Blue Devils.
It’s not just Louisville’s downturn that is affecting the hype, or lack of it, for the contest. Duke has its own problems in the Year 1 AK – After Krzyzewski – and looking to build some momentum going into the ACC Tournament that begins just 15 days from now.
Dookies Open -20 Before Overnight Trading
We’ve been following the numbers on BMR’s live odds board since they first went out on Sunday, and there was a quick adjustment to the opener that pegged Duke as 20-point chalk. That number has settled at -18.5 at most of the outlets.
There was very little movement on the scoreboard target. The total opened 138 and that number dropped half a point in early action.
The ‘Ville Has Covered 4 of the Last 5
Suggesting the Cardinals are the worst of the worst might sound overly harsh and critical, but the fact remains that Louisville sits behind every other team from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, PAC-12, and SEC in the latest Pomeroy Rankings.
As ignominious as that ranking might be, Kenny Payne’s crew is coming off a couple of strong efforts last week that included a new miss and an outright upset of a couple of leaders in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.
It all started with a 61-58 loss to front-running Virginia. The Cardinals were getting 15-16½ from the oddsmakers and were done in by a 5+ minute scoring drought near the end of the first half to fall to a Cavaliers team that was just adorned a 3-seed by the NCAA Selection Committee.
Louisville didn’t let that loss linger, and scored the season’s biggest victory on Saturday in an 83-73 decision over Clemson. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) closed the Tigers -11, and the Cardinals won it at the free throw line by going 26-of-28.
Duke Top 10 in Rebounding, Top 30 in Blocks
Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils were more than happy to see Louisville upset Clemson. Duke now sits just a game behind the Tigers for fourth place in the ACC standings, and the top 4 ultimately receive a double-bye at the league tourney.
The Blue Devils rebounded from a disappointing and controversial overtime loss at Virginia a couple of weekends ago by winning both contests last week. They survived a late rally effort against Notre Dame to begin the week, failing to cover the NCAAB odds in the 68-64 final.
Duke then skated to the cover on the road at Syracuse on Saturday. The Blue Devils closed as 1-point road favorites and shot 50% (13-26) from 3-point range in the 77-55 rout. Dariq Whitehead sparked Duke off the bench with 14 points and made 4-of-6 from beyond the arc.
Rivalry Notes & Betting Trends
This is the second year in a row for Louisville and Duke to only be scheduled for one meeting. The Blue Devils own a 12-9 all-time advantage after posting a 74-65 win over at the KFC Yum Center a year ago as 6-point chalk at top sportsbooks.
It has been nearly two years since the teams met in Durham, and that February 2021 collision was a classic as the Cardinals pulled off an 80-73 win in overtime as 5-point underdogs. The two sides combined for 47 free throw attempts.
- Duke has won and covered the last 2 meetings, both contests staying below the totals.
- The Blue Devils are 7-5 against the Cardinals since Louisville joined the ACC.
- The Cardinals have won their last 2 trips to Cameron.
Cards Hang Inside the Spread
Neither side has been good at covering spreads, but even given the season Louisville is having and seeing the spread drop a tad, it’s still way too high for an inconsistent Duke side.
Let’s play the underdogs and the under with our college basketball picks.
NCAAB Pick: Louisville +18.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
NCAAB Pick: Under 137.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.